Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:13:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x284d…79ff world 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 449d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 79% $0
other 11% $0
politics 6% +$1
crypto 3% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 38% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 12 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 12 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 26 -3.9% -13.1% 50% 4% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 4% -9.5%
10% -21.4% 0% -18.2%
15% -29.0% 0% -26.1%
20% -35.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

449d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)26 / 26
History coverage449d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 26 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $37 +$2 +5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $68 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $4 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $42 −$2 -4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $33 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 15 $2 $0 -5%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 17 $12 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 27 $8 $0 +3%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? May 30 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? May 28 $8 $0 +0%
Will SER win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? May 07 $2 $0 +1%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the Western Conference? Apr 21 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 19 $10 $0 +1%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Quebec in the next C Apr 17 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Mar 28? Mar 26 $8 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $11 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 66¢ $23 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 66¢ $34 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 5h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $14 6h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $20 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $14 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $11 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $17 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $21 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $9 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $31 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $31 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $0 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $31 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $1 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $3 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 65¢ $28 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records