Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:02:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
28 0x2854…3aa4 sports 5 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$255 (+6%) realized +$255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +24% what you keep after slip
Net edge+24%after slip
Net WR75%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$875per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$1,310
other 28% +$210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +75%
net ROI/market (all)+40.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +55.3% +40.5% 75% 75% +45.3%
≤30d 4 +55.3% +40.5% 75% 75% +45.3%
≤90d 4 +55.3% +40.5% 75% 75% +45.3%
all 4 +55.3% +40.5% 75% 75% +45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +40.5% 75% +45.3%
10% ← realistic here +27.0% 75% +31.4%
15% +14.8% 75% +18.7%
20% +3.5% 75% +7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 85% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +55% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$553 vs −$139 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.9 per $1 lost it wins $11.9
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 5
History coverage1d
Avg bet$875
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $634 −$139 -22%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 25 $938 +$1,067 +114%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $590 +$350 +59%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 24 $347 +$243 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republi BUY 32¢ $497 55m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 18¢ $494 56m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 22¢ $634 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Czechia O/U 0.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republi BUY 48¢ $1,371 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers SELL New York Yankees 100¢ $2,005 1h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers BUY New York Yankees 46¢ $938 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $940 3h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $590 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 85¢ $590 3h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $347 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $1,837.46 · 10 history records