Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
28 0x2855…6371 other 47 markets active 16h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$131 (-1%) realized −$300 · open +$169
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%5W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$5,638now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$61
14 days−$61
30 days−$61
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$83
crypto 25% −$217
sports 9% +$388
world 3% −$257
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-51.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -30.6% -37.2% 36% 36% -10.9%
≤30d 14 -30.6% -37.2% 36% 36% -10.9%
≤90d 14 -30.6% -37.2% 36% 36% -10.9%
all 18 -46.0% -51.2% 28% 28% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -51.2% 28% -16.7%
10% -55.8% 28% -24.7%
15% -60.1% 28% -32.0%
20% -64.0% 22% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -46% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$327 vs −$152 · ×2.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$5,638
Realized−$300
Unrealized+$169
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses5 / 13
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions29
Markets (closed)18 / 47
History coverage124d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $2,050 $2,225 +$175 (+9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $648 $1,125 +$477 (+74%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $600 $450 −$150 (-25%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $170 $235 +$65 (+38%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $182 $188 +$6 (+4%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $180 $165 −$15 (-8%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $220 $165 −$55 (-25%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $190 $145 −$45 (-24%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $112 +$62 (+125%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $52 $72 +$20 (+38%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $96 $68 −$28 (-29%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $110 $65 −$45 (-41%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $51 $60 +$8 (+17%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+10%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $56 $46 −$10 (-19%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $51 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $51 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $50 $38 −$12 (-25%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $104 $36 −$68 (-65%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $52 $32 −$20 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$513 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,414 +$707 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $409 −$400 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $367 −$360 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $183 +$278 +152%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $152 +$126 +83%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $223 −$220 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $303 −$300 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $253 −$250 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Feb 12 $120 −$119 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Feb 12 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 12 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 2PM ET Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $1,010 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $409 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $367 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $508 25h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 19¢ $41 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 26h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $223 47h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 39¢ $183 47h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $152 47h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 47h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 57¢ $253 47h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $52 6d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $226 6d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $196 6d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $185 6d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $175 6d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $187 6d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2,109 6d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $515 6d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $107 6d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $99 6d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $668 6d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $113 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,637.94 · official $5,637.94 (match) · 69 history records