Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T09:56:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2858…119d crypto 300 markets active 1h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (111 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8,442 (+1%) realized +$8,208 · open +$234
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate91%265W / 27L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$1,925per market
Trades / day111.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$19,339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$422
7 days+$239
14 days+$630
30 days+$4,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,323
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (111 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +0.6% -9.0% 89% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 291 +7.3% -2.9% 91% 2% -9.0%
≤90d 292 +7.3% -2.9% 91% 2% -9.0%
all 292 +7.3% -2.9% 91% 2% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover111.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.9% 2% -9.0%
10% -12.2% 1% -17.7%
15% ← realistic here -20.7% 1% -25.7%
20% -28.5% 1% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$2,728) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$233 · ×0.17 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$19,339
Realized+$8,208
Unrealized+$234
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses265 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Open positions8
Markets (closed)292 / 300
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$1,925
Trades / day111.1
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5,911 $5,965 +$55 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? No 99¢ 100¢ $5,697 $5,754 +$58 (+1%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 June 22-28? No 98¢ 100¢ $2,548 $2,595 +$47 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $1,725 $1,723 −$2 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $1,800 June 22-28? No 95¢ 99¢ $1,412 $1,473 +$61 (+4%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 28? No 99¢ 100¢ $991 $998 +$6 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $813 $822 +$9 (+1%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 27? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? Jun 27 $376 +$7 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 26? Jun 27 $675 +$9 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $310 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? Jun 26 $438 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 26? Jun 26 $501 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 26? Jun 26 $9 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? Jun 26 $461 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 26? Jun 26 $2,653 +$36 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,491 +$7 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $1,294 +$41 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $4,328 −$27 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 25? Jun 26 $1,741 +$15 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 26 $1,714 +$72 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 25? Jun 26 $821 −$38 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 26? Jun 26 $6,315 +$194 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 25 $1,521 +$49 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $2,728 +$20 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,749 +$14 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $1,836 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $4,552 −$12 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 on June 24? Jun 25 $1,490 +$9 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 24? Jun 25 $1,930 +$17 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 24? Jun 25 $3,615 +$41 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $4,443 +$66 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 24? Jun 24 $1,891 +$23 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $3,985 +$69 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 24? Jun 24 $3,302 +$111 +3%
Will Ethereum reach $1,750 on June 23? Jun 24 $817 +$22 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 23? Jun 24 $1,540 +$43 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? Jun 24 $2,922 +$33 +1%
Will Solana reach $75 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,643 +$22 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 24? Jun 23 $1,973 +$18 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $3,103 +$9 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,636 +$22 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 23? Jun 23 $798 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $4,436 −$208 -5%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 23? Jun 23 $4,372 −$730 -17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 24? Jun 23 $1,174 −$71 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 23 $1,482 −$59 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $3,410 +$64 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 22? Jun 23 $105 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $65 on June 22? Jun 23 $2,483 +$9 +0%
Will Solana reach $80 on June 22? Jun 23 $474 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 22? Jun 22 $561 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 22? Jun 22 $950 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 22? Jun 22 $8 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 22 $1,389 −$14 -1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,144 +$10 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on June 21? Jun 22 $1,072 +$20 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $5 35m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 28? BUY No 99¢ $991 41m
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $59 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $123 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $390 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $394 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $409 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $409 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $1,966 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $48 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $280 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $1,395 8h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $814 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 27? BUY No 98¢ $734 10h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 27? SELL Yes 100¢ $313 10h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $441 11h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $1 14h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $456 15h
Will Ethereum reach $1,700 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $219 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $487 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $200 18h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 26? SELL Yes 100¢ $50 19h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 on June 26? BUY No 99¢ $438 19h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 27? BUY Yes 98¢ $376 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19,339.35 · official $19,339.35 (match) · 3500 history records