Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:52:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2859…26d7 other 86 markets active 10h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+4%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate59%51W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days+$26
14 days+$7
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$12
crypto 20% +$14
world 13% $0
sports 11% +$25
politics 2% −$15
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +35.5% +22.6% 50% 50% +1.0%
≤30d 86 +7.8% -2.5% 59% 45% -7.1%
≤90d 86 +7.8% -2.5% 59% 45% -7.1%
all 86 +7.8% -2.5% 59% 45% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.5% 45% -7.1%
10% -11.8% 35% -16.0%
15% -20.4% 23% -24.1%
20% -28.2% 17% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses51 / 35
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 86
History coverage24d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$9 +140%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$2 +25%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $6 $0 -3%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 $0 -12%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 +$3 +291%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$4 +114%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $10 +$4 +38%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$5 +74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +42%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$4 +46%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $12 +$3 +25%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $12 +$12 +99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$10 +246%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $21 +$11 +52%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $22 +$6 +28%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$5 +254%
Will Ted Cruz post 120-139 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -97%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 11 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 10 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 10 $30 +$8 +27%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $15 +$5 +33%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $43 −$23 -54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $16 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $1 +$2 +148%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $21 +$10 +50%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $90 +$7 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $101 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $15 +$4 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $1 $0 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 9h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 10h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 80¢ $4 10h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 10h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 75¢ $6 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 51¢ $2 10h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $2 20h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $6 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $2 20h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $9 20h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $8 20h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 20h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $3 21h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $10 21h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $6 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $8 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $12 37h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $10 37h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 37h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $12 38h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $8 38h
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 9 to June BUY Yes 3¢ $2 41h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 62¢ $2 2d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $30 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.57 · official $54.57 (match) · 162 history records