Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x285a…b323 crypto 829 markets active 10h ago coverage 272d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$236 (-18%) realized −$234 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%366W / 461L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$26
14 days−$58
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 40% −$133
sports 29% −$6
other 27% −$86
politics 1% −$6
economics 1% −$8
tech 1% −$4
world 1% −$2
culture 1% −$4
finance 0% −$3
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -44.0% -49.3% 26% 17% -67.9%
≤30d 116 -9.5% -18.1% 32% 28% -34.8%
≤90d 283 -18.2% -26.0% 38% 36% -31.9%
all 827 -20.7% -28.2% 44% 41% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 41% -29.1%
10% -35.1% 38% -35.9%
15% -41.4% 30% -42.1%
20% -47.1% 22% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

272d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$234
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses366 / 461
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)827 / 829
History coverage272d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 827 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 43¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-57%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 42¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 394 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$5 +479%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 10 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$2 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$7 +660%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$8 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 08 $1 +$1 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$4 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 07 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 04 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 9h
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 79¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 33¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.44 · official $0.44 (match) · 1579 history records