Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x285a…fd1b crypto 123 markets active 116d ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (268 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$10,683 (+2537%) realized +$10,683 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +91% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +47% what you keep after slip
Net edge+47%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate52%64W / 59L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day268.4pace
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$77
other 14% +$21
tech 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (268 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+72.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 123 +91.1% +72.9% 52% 50% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover268.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +72.9% 50% +11.5%
10% ← realistic here +56.3% 44% +0.9%
15% +41.2% 40% -8.9%
20% +27.4% 33% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +91% · $-wt +24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +46% → late +135% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
15.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.55 per $1 lost it wins $3.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,683
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses64 / 59
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$3
Trades / day268.4
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in April 2026? Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in April 2026? Apr 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in March 2026? Mar 25 $0 +$1 +1632%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets in March 2026? Mar 25 $3 +$4 +138%
Will Solana reach $170 in February? Mar 25 $1 +$1 +152%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets in March 2026? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in February? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $160 in February? Mar 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on Mar 05 $0 +$1 +200%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? Mar 04 $0 +$1 +1546%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in March 2026? Mar 01 $0 $0 +121%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? Mar 01 $0 $0 +902%
Will Solana reach $190 in February? Feb 28 $2 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Feb 27 $2 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets in March 2026? Feb 27 $0 $0 +98%
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Feb 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets in March 2026? Feb 27 $1 +$2 +200%
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market Feb 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets in March 2026? Feb 27 $0 $0 +136%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in February? Feb 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets in March 2026? Feb 27 $0 +$2 +4819%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets in March 2026? Feb 27 $0 +$2 +3768%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on February 26? Feb 26 $4 +$2 +49%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Feb 26 $3 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in February? Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from February 20 to February 27, 20 Feb 26 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on February 2 Feb 26 $3 +$3 +80%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 20 Feb 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on February 24? Feb 26 $2 $0 -10%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on February 25? Feb 26 $7 +$4 +60%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on February 2 Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 25 Feb 26 $4 −$2 -45%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 24? Feb 26 $4 $0 -4%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on February 25 Feb 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 25? Feb 26 $4 −$2 -57%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on February 24 Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on February 2 Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,100 and $2,200 on February 24 Feb 26 $6 −$2 -33%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on February 24 Feb 26 $3 −$2 -66%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on February 24? Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on February 2 Feb 26 $4 −$2 -50%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on February 24? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 February 23-March 1? Feb 26 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Solana reach $200 in February? Feb 26 $2 +$4 +200%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 0¢ $1 116d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 116d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 117d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 117d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 120d
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 120d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 120d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets in March 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 120d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 121d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 121d
Will Solana reach $190 in February? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 121d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records