Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:09:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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28 0x285c…3ac1 crypto 1238 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 42d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$400 (+4%) realized +$396 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate14%227W / 1453L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$552now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$428
7 days−$408
14 days−$411
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$61
world 32% +$687
other 4% −$81
sports 1% +$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-33.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 466 -94.3% -94.8% 2% 2% -20.7%
≤30d 644 -68.9% -71.8% 16% 16% -18.3%
≤90d 1680 -27.0% -33.9% 14% 12% -13.7%
all 1680 -27.0% -33.9% 14% 12% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.9% 12% -13.7%
10% -40.2% 10% -21.9%
15% -46.0% 8% -29.5%
20% -51.3% 6% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -53% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.14 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$552
Realized+$396
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses227 / 1453
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions8
Markets (closed)1680 / 1238
History coverage42d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 1680 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 81¢ $400 $407 +$7 (+2%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners Over 53¢ 55¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 53¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-5%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+2%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 41¢ 40¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+4%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $17 $12 −$5 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 458 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 21 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 41¢ $20 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 7.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 36¢ $20 10h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Sweden 1¢ $0 12h
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $400 17h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 56¢ $30 17h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 36¢ $10 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Sweden 68¢ $10 22h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 24h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $1,074 33h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 45h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 40¢ $100 2d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $300 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 66¢ $289 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 50¢ $140 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 68¢ $300 3d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $5 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? BUY Yes 33¢ $50 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $40 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 94¢ $564 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $39 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $53 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $116 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 62¢ $256 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $426 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $551.55 · official $551.60 (match) · 3500 history records