Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T12:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
28 0x285e…2394 politics 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 108d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%2W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 35% −$2
other 30% $0
crypto 12% $0
world 12% −$2
economics 6% $0
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 2 -0.9% -10.3% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 10 -0.2% -9.7% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 15 -0.2% -9.7% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

108d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses2 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage108d
Avg bet$129
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $224 −$2 -1%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $112 −$1 -1%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 19 $113 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $113 $0 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $113 $0 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $113 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $114 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $114 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $114 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $114 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $114 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 14 $229 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 06 $114 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? Mar 03 $115 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $110 1h
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $111 12h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $111 8d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $112 10d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $112 21d
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 22d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $113 31d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $113 31d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $113 36d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $113 36d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $113 38d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $68 38d
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 38d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $113 46d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $113 46d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $114 64d
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $114 65d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $114 73d
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $114 74d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $114 77d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $114 77d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 100¢ $114 84d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $114 85d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $114 94d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $114 94d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $114 96d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $114 97d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $114 98d
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $114 98d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? SELL No 100¢ $114 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 48 history records