Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:10:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x285e…8418 other 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$294 (-33%) realized −$285 · open −$9
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%7W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$113
7 days−$117
14 days−$117
30 days−$117
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$6
sports 33% −$183
crypto 26% −$103
world 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.6% -14.6% 27% 27% -43.4%
≤30d 11 -5.6% -14.6% 27% 27% -43.4%
≤90d 25 -23.0% -30.4% 28% 24% -44.5%
all 25 -23.0% -30.4% 28% 24% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.4% 24% -44.5%
10% -37.0% 24% -49.8%
15% -43.1% 24% -54.7%
20% -48.7% 20% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$25 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$285
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses7 / 18
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions7
Markets (closed)25 / 32
History coverage71d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Over 34¢ 54¢ $50 $79 +$29 (+57%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+8%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Over 32¢ 32¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? Yes $15 $12 −$3 (-18%)
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Over 18¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-75%)
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico FIFA World Cup Match? Yes 54¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$52 +510%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$45 +90%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$21 +140%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $21 −$20 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -97%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 18 $50 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Apr 16 $20 −$19 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Apr 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $80 −$31 -39%
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills? Apr 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Apr 15 $20 +$19 +97%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Apr 15 $20 +$37 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 15 $20 +$8 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 34¢ $51 1h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $20 3h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 18¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 France? BUY Yes $15 3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $26 3h
Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Czechia vs Mexico BUY Yes 54¢ $31 21h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 22h
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 22h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 22h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 22h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $15 30h
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes $21 2d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $10 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $51 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $51 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 82¢ $50 68d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $20 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $10 70d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 70d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $50 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $58 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $50 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes $10 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down $10 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $40 71d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $10 71d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? SELL Yes 20¢ $39 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.62 · official $192.66 · 50 history records