Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:22:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2861…cff4 crypto 32 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$58 (+5%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 12d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$184
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-43.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -26.5% -33.5% 33% 29% -27.0%
≤30d 32 -37.8% -43.7% 28% 22% -28.3%
≤90d 32 -37.8% -43.7% 28% 22% -28.3%
all 32 -37.8% -43.7% 28% 22% -28.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -43.7% 22% -28.3%
10% -49.1% 22% -35.2%
15% -54.0% 22% -41.4%
20% -58.5% 22% -47.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -38% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$23 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage12d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 32 Trades
no open positions (22 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $138 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $190 −$40 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 26 $29 +$52 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $79 −$25 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 26 $54 −$50 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 26 $55 −$50 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $54 +$30 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $109 −$50 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $62 −$25 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$41 +150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$25 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $2 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $13 +$17 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $36 −$34 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$160 +262%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $3 −$2 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $2 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 26 $11 −$5 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 26 $61 −$56 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$4 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$2 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $54 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $48 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $52 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $55 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $43 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $42 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $43 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $55 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $78 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $54 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $27 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $56 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $54 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $81 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $27 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $23 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $25 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 76¢ $53 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $54 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $54 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $83 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $60 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 74¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $27 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 73 history records