Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:20:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
28 0x2864…c074 crypto 194 markets active 3h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%82W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$8
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$5
sports 26% −$29
crypto 15% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -7.5% -16.3% 49% 49% -5.5%
≤30d 193 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 42% -8.4%
≤90d 193 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 42% -8.4%
all 193 -13.6% -21.8% 42% 42% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 42% -8.4%
10% -29.3% 41% -17.1%
15% -36.1% 39% -25.1%
20% -42.4% 33% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$4 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses82 / 111
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)193 / 194
History coverage13d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 193 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 65¢ 65¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 84 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $28 +$21 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $21 +$7 +32%
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $15 +$16 +106%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $8 −$8 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 24 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $1 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +117%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 24 $10 +$11 +109%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$9 -82%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? Jun 24 $10 −$2 -22%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $20 +$21 +101%
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $56 −$36 -64%
England to score first vs. Ghana? Jun 23 $10 −$6 -58%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $33 −$18 -53%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 23 $10 +$6 +60%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 −$12 -76%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$13 +129%
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Jun 23 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$24 +48%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $20 +$12 +60%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$24 -80%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $10 +$9 +90%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$10 +48%
Japan to score first vs. Tunisia? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +42%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$21 +52%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Germany to score first vs. Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 65¢ $48 3h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $28 7h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $21 10h
Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 62¢ $10 10h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $8 12h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 12h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $10 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 28h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 28h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 28h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 28h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 48¢ $10 28h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 29h
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? SELL Yes 59¢ $8 29h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 29h
Colombia to score first vs. DR Congo? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 30h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 30h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 49¢ $20 34h
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $10 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.