Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:37:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
28 0x2865…2005 world 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 580d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$540 (+4%) realized +$456 · open +$84
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate61%43W / 27L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$885now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$706
politics 33% −$186
other 10% −$62
economics 1% +$11
crypto 1% −$2
tech 0% −$43
finance 0% −$11
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-15.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +18.8% +7.5% 100% 100% +6.8%
≤90d 14 -51.6% -56.2% 29% 29% -52.3%
all 70 -6.8% -15.7% 61% 46% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.7% 46% -6.7%
10% -23.8% 31% -15.6%
15% -31.1% 20% -23.8%
20% -37.9% 13% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -47% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$68 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

580d coverage
Net worth$885
Realized+$456
Unrealized+$84
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses43 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)70 / 75
History coverage580d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $327 $368 +$41 (+13%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $255 $288 +$33 (+13%)
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 47¢ 52¢ $127 $140 +$12 (+10%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 65¢ 64¢ $65 $64 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? No 37¢ 36¢ $26 $25 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 11 $17 +$3 +18%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? Apr 09 $40 +$17 +43%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Apr 01 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 23, 2026? Apr 01 $179 −$96 -54%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March? Apr 01 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28? Apr 01 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during EPA announcement? Apr 01 $4 −$4 -100%
More EU sanctions on Russia by March 31? Apr 01 $138 −$138 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 3, 2026? Apr 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Bayrou out as French PM in 2025? Apr 01 $194 −$32 -16%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 21, 2026? Apr 01 $59 −$34 -58%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -100%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $90 +$23 +26%
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? Mar 28 $88 +$29 +33%
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31? Mar 27 $112 +$16 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 27 $347 −$22 -6%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 25 $64 −$60 -94%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 16 $12 −$2 -20%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15? Mar 09 $194 +$55 +28%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 8? Mar 08 $22 +$6 +28%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 7? Mar 07 $118 +$10 +8%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6? Mar 06 $365 +$7 +2%
US seizes an Iran-linked oil tanker by March 7? Mar 06 $236 +$27 +12%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5? Mar 05 $200 +$49 +25%
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4? Mar 04 $183 +$22 +12%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 1, 2026? Mar 01 $53 +$44 +83%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 27, 2026? Feb 28 $96 +$41 +42%
French forces seize another oil tanker by Feb 28? Feb 27 $177 +$77 +44%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 25, 2026? Feb 26 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 24, 2026? Feb 25 $172 +$132 +77%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 22, 2026? Feb 23 $446 +$198 +44%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 20, 2026? Feb 20 $92 −$22 -24%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 17, 2026? Feb 20 $169 +$163 +97%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 13, 2026? Feb 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 18, 2026? Feb 18 $48 −$19 -40%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 15, 2026? Feb 17 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 14, 2026? Feb 14 $199 +$157 +79%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 11, 2026? Feb 14 $23 −$11 -51%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 12, 2026? Feb 13 $257 −$204 -80%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 9, 2026? Feb 13 $296 −$296 -100%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 10, 2026? Feb 10 $47 +$59 +124%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 8, 2026? Feb 08 $307 +$399 +130%
Will the winner of Beast Games: Season 2 be Strong or Smart? Feb 08 $10 +$1 +10%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 7, 2026? Feb 08 $130 +$115 +89%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026? Feb 07 $43 +$6 +14%
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by February 6? Feb 03 $285 +$15 +5%
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in January? Feb 03 $860 +$38 +4%
Will the government shutdown last 5 days or more? Feb 03 $110 −$72 -66%
US government shutdown Saturday? Jan 31 $1,012 +$265 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $127 1h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $6 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $5 2h
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1,226 2h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $7 8d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY No 37¢ $19 8d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 10d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 10d
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $17 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $144 69d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $47 69d
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $17 78d
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $40 78d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $191 86d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 86d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 86d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 86d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 86d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 86d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 86d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $2 86d
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $48 86d
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by April 30? BUY No 67¢ $40 90d
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $18 90d
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $46 91d
US downs a Mexican cartel drone by March 31? SELL No 98¢ $32 91d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $17 91d
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31? SELL No 97¢ $1 92d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $884.57 · official $884.57 (match) · 382 history records