Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:56:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
28 0x2868…9ba2 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 618d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$133 (-1%) realized −$135 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate94%49W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$486now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 42% +$30
tech 20% +$35
other 16% −$72
politics 6% −$149
world 6% +$12
sports 6% +$8
economics 3% +$1
finance 2% +$2
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.6% -7.1% 100% 0% -7.3%
≤30d 4 +2.1% -7.6% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 12 +2.8% -7.0% 100% 0% -7.2%
all 52 -2.0% -11.4% 94% 4% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 4% -10.9%
10% -19.8% 4% -19.4%
15% -27.6% 4% -27.2%
20% -34.7% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$84 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

618d coverage
Net worth$486
Realized−$135
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses49 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)52 / 55
History coverage618d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $190 $192 +$2 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $150 $150 −$0 (-0%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 95¢ 95¢ $144 $144 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 26 $100 +$3 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? Jun 26 $200 +$4 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 04 $220 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 04 $260 +$6 +2%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 22 $201 +$7 +4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 07 $76 +$5 +7%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 07 $83 +$2 +2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 07 $130 +$5 +4%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 07 $170 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 18 $150 +$6 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? Apr 04 $180 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 04 $256 +$9 +4%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? Mar 25 $176 +$2 +1%
Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28? Mar 11 $140 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Mar 11 $288 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 1? Feb 26 $70 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? Feb 01 $130 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Feb 01 $400 +$15 +4%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? Jan 28 $19 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 10 $416 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 8? Dec 24 $130 +$1 +0%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 8 above $150? Dec 24 $280 +$1 +0%
Will Chainlink dip to $5 in November? Dec 08 $402 +$4 +1%
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 14? Nov 25 $155 +$4 +2%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? Nov 25 $235 +$1 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 12 $125 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $108,000 on October 27? Nov 12 $276 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 27 $261 +$3 +1%
Ethereum above $4100 on September 3? Oct 12 $120 +$2 +1%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 12 $266 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $4400 August 4–10? Sep 03 $110 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on August 10? Sep 03 $267 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on July 11? Aug 10 $116 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $110K on July 11 at 5PM ET? Aug 10 $258 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jul 11 $150 $0 +0%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 11 $228 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in May? Jun 12 $334 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk buy OpenAI before May? May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 15 $348 +$1 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 09 $40 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $80 in March? Apr 09 $61 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000.00 by March 31? Apr 09 $300 +$1 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 300 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 20 $50 $0 +1%
Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? Feb 18 $88 −$88 -100%
Will MicroStrategy hold 500k+ BTC before Trump inauguration? Feb 18 $80 $0 +0%
SpaceX Flight 7 launch before February 2025? Jan 18 $82 +$1 +1%
Will the FED change rates to another level after December meeting? Jan 13 $82 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $65 −$65 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 27 $98 −$98 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 99¢ $150 1h
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? BUY No 95¢ $144 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 4? BUY Yes 98¢ $200 22d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $190 22d
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $100 22d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY Yes 99¢ $220 35d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $201 50d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $260 50d
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $76 69d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 98¢ $55 69d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 98¢ $23 69d
LoL: DN SOOPers vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 98¢ $5 69d
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage BUY PARIVISION 96¢ $150 83d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY No 96¢ $130 83d
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $170 83d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,600 by end of March? BUY No 99¢ $180 93d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by March 13? BUY No 99¢ $176 107d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY Yes 97¢ $256 107d
Zhang Youxia seen in public by February 28? BUY No 100¢ $140 120d
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 1? BUY Down 98¢ $70 145d
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? BUY No 99¢ $288 145d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in January? BUY No 99¢ $130 149d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua SELL Yes 100¢ $109 149d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 96¢ $400 167d
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 4th Weekend Box Office be less than 27m? BUY Yes 99¢ $19 167d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 99¢ $416 184d
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of December 8 above $150? BUY No 100¢ $280 200d
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 8? BUY No 100¢ $130 200d
Will Chainlink dip to $5 in November? BUY No 99¢ $402 213d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by December 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $235 226d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $485.68 · official $485.68 (match) · 112 history records