Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:57:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2869…a155 crypto 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$53 (-14%) realized −$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate38%17W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day11.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$27
14 days+$37
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$31
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +28.6% +16.4% 53% 53% +3.5%
≤30d 45 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 36% -17.2%
≤90d 45 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 36% -17.2%
all 45 -10.6% -19.1% 38% 36% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 36% -17.2%
10% -26.8% 33% -25.1%
15% -33.9% 33% -32.3%
20% -40.4% 31% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$6 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses17 / 28
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage22d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day11.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions (21 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$4 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $7 +$8 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $13 +$5 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $15 +$26 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 23 $18 +$9 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$8 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$8 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $8 +$14 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 23 $16 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 23 $2 +$5 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $11 +$16 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 09 $8 +$9 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 08 $6 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $21 −$6 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 08 $14 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 08 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 08 $4 −$3 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 08 $5 +$8 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 08 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $8 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 08 $2 +$3 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 03 $26 −$17 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 03 $15 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 03 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 03 $3 +$4 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 01 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Down 4¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET SELL Up 83¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET SELL Up 50¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET SELL Up 10¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $3 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 265 history records