Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:39:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x286d…825a
weather · 877 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,066 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,064 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$67
Realized−$1,064
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses525 / 338
Open positions14
Markets (closed)863 / 877
History coverage71d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day42.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 14 History 863 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$77
14 days−$144
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 71¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+41%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? No 73¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? No 46¢ 52¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? No 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? No 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? No 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? No 77¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? No 74¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? No 63¢ 60¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? No 76¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? No 72¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? No 74¢ 66¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 10? No 59¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? No 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 10? No 71¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 9? No 45¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? No 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? No 30¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 9? No 70¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? No 68¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 9? No 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9? No 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on June 10? No 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $15 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? Jun 13 $3 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -12%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 32°C on June 11? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$4 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 12? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 +$2 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$2 +72%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 10? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$1 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$4 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 +$2 +49%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$1,066
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 71¢ $5 38m
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $5 39m
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 66-67°F on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $5 44m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $5 48m
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 63¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 13? SELL No 50¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 56¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 46¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 26¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY No 25¢ $2 6h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 12? BUY No 66¢ $3 10h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $4 13h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $1 13h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $5 13h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? SELL No 66¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 13? SELL No 64¢ $4 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 75¢ $2 16h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL No 77¢ $3 16h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 63¢ $5 19h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 72¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $5 21h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 68¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 64¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY No 76¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? BUY No 67¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 12? SELL No 58¢ $4 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 170 -1.8% -11.1% 61% 58% -14.9%
≤30d 590 -0.5% -10.0% 61% 55% -11.4%
≤90d 863 -0.6% -10.0% 61% 56% -14.9%
all 863 -0.6% -10.0% 61% 56% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.0% 56% -14.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.6% 50% -23.0%
15% -26.5% 32% -30.5%
20% -33.7% 12% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.48 · official $67.48 (match) · 3500 history records