Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:30:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
28 0x2874…018f sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+2%) realized −$13 · open +$22
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%14W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$16
14 days+$16
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 60% +$5
sports 39% +$19
world 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +0.6% -9.0% 54% 50% -5.6%
≤30d 25 -3.4% -12.6% 52% 48% -12.6%
≤90d 26 -0.7% -10.2% 54% 50% -9.7%
all 26 -0.7% -10.2% 54% 50% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 50% -9.7%
10% -18.8% 46% -18.4%
15% -26.6% 42% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 35% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +28% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$72
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses14 / 12
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage54d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 58¢ 78¢ $30 $41 +$11 (+35%)
Spread: England (-1.5) England 32¢ 50¢ $20 $32 +$12 (+58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 +$10 +33%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$28 +92%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $40 +$25 +63%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +333%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -99%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$15 +143%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $20 +$17 +82%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 +45%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +59%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $20 +$7 +36%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 +$9 +85%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $19 +$13 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 32¢ $20 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $58 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $51 3h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 94¢ $40 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $59 17h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 51¢ $30 18h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $66 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $30 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 41h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 43h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 79¢ $9 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 2d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $10 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $25 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) SELL Sweden 99¢ $25 2d
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) BUY Sweden 40¢ $10 2d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 98¢ $37 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 53¢ $20 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.17 · official $72.17 (match) · 48 history records