Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
28 0x2875…9045 sports 70 markets active 2d ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$342 (-3%) realized −$342 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%31W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$155per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$78est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$189
7 days−$294
14 days+$144
30 days+$144
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$1,161
other 13% +$543
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 48% 48% -15.9%
≤30d 34 +10.8% +0.2% 50% 50% -7.5%
≤90d 36 +9.6% -0.9% 50% 50% -7.7%
all 70 -6.6% -15.5% 44% 44% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 44% -14.8%
10% -23.6% 43% -23.0%
15% -31.0% 43% -30.4%
20% -37.7% 41% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$158 vs −$141 · ×1.12 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$342
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses31 / 39
Est. fees paid−$78
Open positions0
Markets (closed)70 / 70
History coverage154d
Avg bet$155
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 70 Trades
no open positions (39 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $203 +$189 +93%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $203 −$200 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $101 +$60 +60%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $202 −$200 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$60 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $202 +$137 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $405 +$251 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $610 −$600 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$75 +365%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $21 −$20 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $203 +$197 +97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $203 +$273 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$142 +70%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 +$377 +124%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 −$200 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$205 +101%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $202 +$126 +62%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $203 +$175 +86%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $102 +$392 +383%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $254 +$289 +114%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $203 +$251 +124%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Season May 08 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 28 $112 +$88 +79%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 22 $297 −$297 -100%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO5) - First Stand Group A Mar 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Valorant: Nongshim RedForce vs Paper Rex (BO5) - VCT Masters Santiago Mar 15 $212 −$212 -100%
LoL: G2 NORD vs Witchcraft (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Mar 14 $153 −$45 -29%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Playoff Mar 13 $206 −$11 -5%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 01 $194 +$192 +99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 01 $220 +$280 +127%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Feb 26 $56 −$36 -64%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 23 $299 +$191 +64%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 22 $199 −$199 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs GIANTX (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 22 $212 −$212 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 22 $210 −$210 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Feb 21 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 20 $199 +$233 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 2d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $102 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 2d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $202 2d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $101 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $101 4d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $102 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 5d
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 5d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $405 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 5d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $203 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes $21 6d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $305 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 7d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 7d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $203 7d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 7d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $305 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $203 8d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $202 8d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $203 8d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $203 9d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 99¢ $495 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 164 history records