Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x2878…c589
other · 290 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$2 · open −$10
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$129
Realized−$2
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses173 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions112
Markets (closed)178 / 290
History coverage2d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day190.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%
Chart Positions 112 History 178 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? No 98¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? No 98¢ 98¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Everton de Viña del Mar 3 - 1 CD Palestino? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Michel Aebischer: 2+ goals No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 2 - 3 CD Cobresal? No 99¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Breel Embolo: 3+ goals No 98¢ 94¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on June 13? No 97¢ 96¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 3 - 3 CD Cobresal? No 99¢ 97¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 0 - 1 CD Cobresal? No 98¢ 98¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 13? No 97¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 1 - 3 CD Cobresal? No 99¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 3 - 2 CD Cobresal? No 97¢ 97¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? No 98¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 13, 3PM ET? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: FC Lahti 0 - 0 Seinajoen JK? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: FC Lahti 1 - 3 Seinajoen JK? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: FC Lahti 0 - 3 Seinajoen JK? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Exact Score: FC Lahti 3 - 0 Seinajoen JK? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: FC Lahti 3 - 3 Seinajoen JK? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Exact Score: FC Lahti 3 - 2 Seinajoen JK? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: FC Lahti 0 - 2 Seinajoen JK? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: FC Lahti 3 - 1 Seinajoen JK? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: IFK Mariehamn 2 - 3 IF Gnistan? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: IFK Mariehamn 3 - 3 IF Gnistan? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: IFK Mariehamn 3 - 2 IF Gnistan? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: IFK Mariehamn 3 - 1 IF Gnistan? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: IFK Mariehamn 2 - 0 IF Gnistan? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +4%
Exact Score: Vaasan Palloseura 3 - 0 Kuopion Palloseura? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Vaasan Palloseura 2 - 3 Kuopion Palloseura? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Vaasan Palloseura 3 - 2 Kuopion Palloseura? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Vaasan Palloseura 3 - 1 Kuopion Palloseura? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: FF Jaro 2 - 0 HJK Helsinki? Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Exact Score: FF Jaro 3 - 0 HJK Helsinki? Jun 13 $2 $0 +1%
Exact Score: FF Jaro 3 - 1 HJK Helsinki? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: FF Jaro 2 - 1 HJK Helsinki? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: FF Jaro 0 - 0 HJK Helsinki? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Exact Score: FF Jaro 1 - 0 HJK Helsinki? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Exact Score: FF Jaro 3 - 3 HJK Helsinki? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Exact Score: FF Jaro 2 - 3 HJK Helsinki? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Exact Score: FF Jaro 3 - 2 HJK Helsinki? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 62% −$9
weather 24% −$2
sports 6% −$1
tech 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bruno Guimarães: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 6m
Brahim Díaz: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 33m
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 1 - 1 CD Cobresal? BUY No 94¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 2 - 2 CD Cobresal? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 1 - 2 CD Cobresal? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 0 - 0 CD Cobresal? BUY No 98¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 3 - 2 CD Cobresal? BUY No 97¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 1 - 3 CD Cobresal? BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 0 - 1 CD Cobresal? BUY No 98¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 3 - 3 CD Cobresal? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 2 - 3 CD Cobresal? BUY No 99¢ $2 1h
Soufiane Rahimi: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Ayoub El Kaabi: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Casemiro: 2+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 0 - 2 CD Cobresal? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Raphinha: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Endrick: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: CSD Colo-Colo 0 - 3 CD Cobresal? BUY No 99¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 3 Switzerland? BUY No 98¢ $3 2h
Exact Score: Qatar 2 - 1 Switzerland? BUY No 98¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin above 64,400 on June 13, 3PM ET? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Everton de Viña del Mar 2 - 3 CD Palestino? BUY No 98¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Everton de Viña del Mar 1 - 3 CD Palestino? BUY No 98¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Everton de Viña del Mar 2 - 2 CD Palestino? BUY No 96¢ $1 3h
Exact Score: Everton de Viña del Mar 3 - 0 CD Palestino? BUY No 98¢ $1 3h
Johan Manzambi: 5+ shots BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Neither team to score first? BUY No 96¢ $1 3h
Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Noah Okafor: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
Cédric Itten: 3+ goals BUY No 99¢ $1 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 178 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 1% -10.0%
≤30d 178 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 1% -10.0%
≤90d 178 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 1% -10.0%
all 178 -0.9% -10.3% 97% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover190.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.3% 1% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.5%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.27 · official $129.16 (match) · 463 history records