Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:05:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
28 0x2878…466d world 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 225d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$2,024 (-48%) realized −$2,142 · open +$118
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$531per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,838now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 225d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,889
world 25% +$7
crypto 7% −$279
politics 5% +$254
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-31.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 3 -24.3% -31.5% 33% 33% -83.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.5% 33% -83.4%
10% -38.1% 33% -85.0%
15% -44.1% 33% -86.5%
20% -49.5% 33% -87.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -82% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$254 vs −$1,139 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$1,838
Realized−$2,142
Unrealized+$118
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)3 / 8
History coverage225d
Avg bet$531
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 3 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ 66¢ $700 $811 +$111 (+16%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $420 $465 +$45 (+11%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $300 $262 −$38 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? May 23 $280 −$279 -99%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 10 $200 +$254 +127%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $709 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 8¢ $308 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 10¢ $308 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $431 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 73¢ $15 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 8¢ $125 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 7¢ $37 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 8¢ $11 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 23? BUY Yes 8¢ $19 29d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? SELL No 92¢ $454 223d
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? BUY No 41¢ $200 224d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $2,000 224d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,838.03 · official $1,852.80 (match) · 30 history records