Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:28:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x287a…5784 crypto 223 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+3%) realized +$15 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate68%151W / 71L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day104.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 222 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 65% -8.3%
≤30d 222 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 65% -8.3%
≤90d 222 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 65% -8.3%
all 222 +1.4% -8.3% 68% 65% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.3% 65% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -17.1% 53% -17.0%
15% -25.1% 36% -25.0%
20% -32.4% 15% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses151 / 71
Open positions1
Markets (closed)222 / 223
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day104.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 222 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 68¢ 66¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Up 66¢ 34¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.95 · official $3.81 (match) · 745 history records