Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:39:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x287d…f29e sports 106 markets active 3h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$180 (-10%) realized −$177 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate43%45W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$0
14 days−$429
30 days−$419
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 83% −$197
other 17% −$26
weather 0% −$1
crypto 0% −$1
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.3% -9.3% 42% 33% -9.1%
≤30d 53 -48.2% -53.1% 15% 13% -48.0%
≤90d 105 -11.3% -19.7% 43% 38% -20.7%
all 105 -11.3% -19.7% 43% 38% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 38% -20.7%
10% -27.4% 35% -28.3%
15% -34.4% 30% -35.2%
20% -40.8% 21% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -48% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$177
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses45 / 60
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)105 / 106
History coverage71d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Afghanistan 1¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $6 +$18 +296%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $15 +$8 +51%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $16 −$8 -53%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia Jun 14 $9 −$2 -25%
Will Afghanistan win? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -100%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $5 +$4 +78%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $11 +$7 +66%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $2 $0 -17%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 09 $5 $0 -5%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Delhi Capitals Jun 08 $12 −$5 -43%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 08 $29 +$8 +28%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Gujarat Titans Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians Jun 08 $5 −$2 -44%
Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Gujarat Titans Jun 08 $10 −$4 -43%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on May 6? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Royal Challengers Bangalore Jun 08 $16 −$11 -67%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Delhi Capitals Jun 08 $18 −$10 -56%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants Jun 08 $9 −$9 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals Jun 08 $24 −$12 -48%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Lucknow Super Gi Jun 08 $15 −$10 -69%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Mumbai Indians Jun 08 $27 −$13 -50%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders Jun 08 $30 −$11 -37%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 08 $41 −$17 -42%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals Jun 08 $50 −$12 -23%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Sunrisers Hyderabad Jun 08 $20 −$20 -100%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Chennai Super Kings Jun 08 $32 −$32 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Delhi Capitals Jun 08 $46 −$4 -8%
Will Pakistan win? Jun 08 $37 −$5 -14%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Punjab Kings Jun 08 $53 −$14 -26%
Will New Zealand win? Jun 08 $6 −$6 -100%
T20 Series England vs. India, Women: England vs India Jun 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Indian Premier League: Lucknow Super Giants vs Royal Challengers Banga Jun 08 $76 −$58 -76%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? Jun 08 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump and Xi kiss at their summit? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru Jun 08 $156 −$54 -34%
Will Ireland win? Jun 08 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or higher on May 16? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 1¢ $0 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 1¢ $1 3h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 1¢ $1 4h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 2¢ $1 4h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 92¢ $29 5h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 79¢ $25 6h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh SELL Bangladesh 9¢ $5 7h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Ireland BUY Ireland 5¢ $1 20h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh BUY Bangladesh 8¢ $5 21h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 83¢ $20 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 19¢ $4 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 4¢ $1 22h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 25¢ $5 23h
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 44¢ $5 2d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Bangladesh 68¢ $23 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 35¢ $5 3d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Bangladesh 50¢ $10 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 76¢ $9 3d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 42¢ $5 3d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 16¢ $6 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 13¢ $5 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL Afghanistan 30¢ $13 4d
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY Afghanistan 14¢ $6 4d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 1¢ $1 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 14¢ $2 5d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 16¢ $2 5d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 49¢ $8 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia SELL Australia 36¢ $8 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 22¢ $5 6d
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Australia: Bangladesh vs Australia BUY Australia 45¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.17 · official $0.17 (match) · 378 history records