Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:37:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x287e…cbf5
other · 83 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$114 +10%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$84 · open −$12
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$264
Realized+$84
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses13 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions10
Markets (closed)73 / 83
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown73%
Kalshi-fit28%
Chart Positions 10 History 73 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$109
7 days−$123
14 days+$84
30 days+$84
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $110 $138 +$28 (+26%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 30¢ $45 $61 +$16 (+35%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-5%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-12%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $45 $2 −$43 (-97%)
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Finland win on 2026-06-05? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Greece win on 2026-06-04? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-06-05? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) John Yannis 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Russia vs. Burkina Faso end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $26 −$2 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$2 -8%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 −$24 -47%
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $71 −$20 -28%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 $0 +1%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $31 −$2 -7%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $15 −$3 -21%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$13 +126%
Will Lionel Messi win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3 −$1 -19%
Will Harry Kane win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4 $0 -5%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$5 -64%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $25 +$13 +52%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $118 +$5 +4%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Bolivia win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Burkina Faso win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $10 +$25 +244%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $15 −$2 -16%
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 07 $10 −$2 -15%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Marcus McGhee vs. John Yannis (Bantamweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $22 −$2 -9%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $9 −$9 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Romania vs. Wales end in a draw? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Will United States vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Portugal vs. Chile end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 81% +$190
sports 15% −$75
politics 4% −$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 28¢ $24 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 25¢ $19 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $27 1h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $51 1h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $31 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $29 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 2h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 13h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 13h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 13h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 13h
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 13h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 17h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 17h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 17h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 17h
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 17h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 17h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-6.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 -43.3% -48.7% 14% 8% -28.1%
≤30d 73 +3.0% -6.8% 18% 14% -6.3%
≤90d 73 +3.0% -6.8% 18% 14% -6.3%
all 73 +3.0% -6.8% 18% 14% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.8% 14% -6.3%
10% -15.7% 14% -15.2%
15% -23.9% 14% -23.4%
20% -31.3% 14% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $263.87 · official $264.51 (match) · 169 history records