Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:46:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
28 0x2881…e7a6 crypto 210 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$689 (-2%) realized −$689 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%105W / 105L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$50
7 days−$304
14 days−$327
30 days−$390
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% −$1,018
politics 31% +$1
other 10% −$221
sports 3% −$59
world 2% −$59
finance 2% $0
weather 1% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -39.9% -45.6% 44% 25% -40.7%
≤30d 23 -35.2% -41.4% 39% 22% -41.0%
≤90d 210 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 42% -13.1%
all 210 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 42% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 42% -13.1%
10% -24.4% 35% -21.4%
15% -31.7% 27% -29.0%
20% -38.4% 18% -35.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$46 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$689
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses105 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)210 / 210
History coverage81d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 210 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 29 $91 −$90 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 29 $75 +$29 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$8 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 29 $11 −$8 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 29 $81 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 29 $66 +$15 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $55 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $6 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 24 $136 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $97 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $65 −$62 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 24 $31 +$9 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $104 −$42 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 16 $17 +$26 +157%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 11 $37 −$29 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 06 $17 −$9 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 04 $42 −$25 -59%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 27 $111 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 27 $96 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 27 $15 −$14 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 27 $96 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 27 $103 −$6 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET May 27 $86 +$17 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 26 $81 −$34 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET May 20 $218 −$210 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 18 $16 +$23 +149%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 16 $26 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 14 $133 −$120 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 14 $162 −$124 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 14 $221 +$36 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 14 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET May 14 $45 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET May 08 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 29 $318 −$318 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 29 $387 −$387 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 29 $207 −$207 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Apr 29 $1,019 +$4 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Apr 29 $2,022 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 29 $536 +$38 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $91 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 94¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET SELL Up 93¢ $68 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $54 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 32¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $106 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $97 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $37 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $134 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $65 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $40 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $31 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 761 history records