Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:02:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2881…434d crypto 1122 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 13d only
✗ bot/MM pace (175 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,294 (+4%) realized +$1,294 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate56%632W / 490L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day175.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,022
7 days−$1,437
14 days+$306
30 days+$306
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$306
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (175 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 511 -26.4% -33.4% 40% 37% -24.9%
≤30d 1122 +2.6% -7.1% 56% 51% -8.7%
≤90d 1122 +2.6% -7.1% 56% 51% -8.7%
all 1122 +2.6% -7.1% 56% 51% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover175.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 51% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 44% -17.4%
15% -24.1% 37% -25.4%
20% -31.6% 32% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +25% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,294
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses632 / 490
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1122 / 1122
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day175.5
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1122 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$5 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 +$11 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$33 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $51 −$13 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $221 −$221 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $133 −$13 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 15 $218 +$153 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$6 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$7 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$10 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $41 +$9 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $21 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$20 +191%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $21 +$24 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $10 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $10 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $20 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $42 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $57 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $56 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $41 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $10 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $21 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records