Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T17:36:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2886…4ccb crypto 89 markets active 1h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$34 (+1%) realized +$51 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate75%66W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$137now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$21
14 days+$21
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1
sports 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -31.0% -37.6% 43% 29% -3.0%
≤30d 16 -22.0% -29.4% 44% 38% -5.4%
≤90d 27 -23.5% -30.8% 48% 30% -10.7%
all 88 -4.7% -13.8% 75% 39% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.8% 39% -8.6%
10% -22.0% 14% -17.4%
15% -29.6% 7% -25.4%
20% -36.5% 5% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$10 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$137
Realized+$51
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses66 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage116d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 67¢ 59¢ $154 $137 −$17 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $152 +$4 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $5 −$4 -99%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? Jun 23 $1 $0 -16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $120 +$23 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 $0 +13%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -37%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in May? May 31 $12 +$3 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 31? May 31 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 30 $52 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $18 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 30? May 30 $14 +$3 +19%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 30? May 30 $1 $0 -28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,500 in May? May 30 $25 +$56 +230%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 29 $10 $0 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 11? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? Apr 11 $13 −$7 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 08 $13 +$2 +12%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Gujarat Titans Apr 08 $5 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 12? Apr 07 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 13? Apr 07 $13 −$11 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Apr 07 $44 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 12 $42 −$19 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11PM ET Mar 12 $48 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 11 $51 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 11? Mar 11 $50 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9AM ET Mar 11 $48 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 11 $46 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 11 $46 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1PM ET Mar 10 $43 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Mar 10 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 10? Mar 10 $18 +$3 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Mar 10 $36 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Mar 10 $30 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Mar 09 $71 −$63 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 9? Mar 09 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:00PM-5:00PM ET Mar 08 $86 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4PM ET Mar 08 $12 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 2PM ET Mar 08 $84 +$13 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 8? Mar 08 $76 +$11 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Mar 08 $68 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 6AM ET Mar 08 $20 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Mar 08 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Mar 08 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6PM ET Mar 08 $57 +$12 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 65¢ $19 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 66¢ $23 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 66¢ $13 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 67¢ $102 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 100¢ $157 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 98¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 97¢ $100 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 78¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 4h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 75¢ $7 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 67¢ $7 12h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 75¢ $11 18h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 73¢ $7 22h
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? BUY No 74¢ $4 34h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 22-28? SELL No 62¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 100¢ $70 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 86¢ $60 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 23? SELL No 84¢ $2 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 89¢ $37 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 71¢ $20 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 71¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.97 · official $137.20 (match) · 419 history records