Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T17:59:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2887…3c7f crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%5W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% $0
crypto 12% $0
sports 12% −$6
politics 9% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 0% -9.5%
all 13 -3.5% -12.7% 38% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -10.2%
10% -21.0% 0% -18.8%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.7%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses5 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage121d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 27 $135 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? Apr 28 $24 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 28 $343 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on March 25? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 19? Mar 25 $15 $0 +1%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 09 $11 −$4 -38%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 04 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 01 $58 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 28 $26 $0 +0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 27 $41 $0 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 27 $16 −$1 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $135 2h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $135 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $132 60d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 67d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 67d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $24 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $100 81d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $17 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $35 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records