Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:19:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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28 0x2888…0fe4 crypto 544 markets active 2h ago coverage 105d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 105d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,243 (-30%) realized −$8,209 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%228W / 693L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day27.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$335now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 105d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$3,187
other 2% +$107
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-52.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 387 -91.8% -92.6% 2% 2% -96.5%
≤30d 388 -91.8% -92.6% 2% 2% -96.5%
≤90d 495 -73.7% -76.2% 12% 12% -60.8%
all 921 -47.0% -52.0% 25% 24% -43.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -52.0% 24% -43.2%
10% ← realistic here -56.6% 23% -48.7%
15% -60.8% 22% -53.6%
20% -64.6% 21% -58.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -47% · $-wt -38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -76% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$33 · ×1.21 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$335
Realized−$8,209
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses228 / 693
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)921 / 544
History coverage105d ⚠
Avg bet$51
Trades / day27.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 921 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $229 $198 −$32 (-14%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $130 $128 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 497 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $57 −$57 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 6, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 23 $19 −$19 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 6PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 4, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 23 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 23 $212 −$212 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$108 -103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 10, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $4 −$1 -31%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $120 −$120 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 8, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 23 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 1, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 5, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $121 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $30 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $103 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 4d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $16 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 7d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $11 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $1 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $21 20d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 21d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $4 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $3 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $12 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $335.01 · official $332.46 (match) · 3500 history records