Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:48:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2889…9226 politics 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$95 (-13%) realized −$54 · open −$41
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%11W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$444now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$35
weather 13% −$97
politics 6% −$18
other 6% −$19
tech 6% −$24
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -14.9% -23.0% 50% 50% -48.2%
≤30d 11 -28.0% -34.9% 36% 36% -30.1%
≤90d 30 -30.5% -37.1% 37% 37% -39.4%
all 30 -30.5% -37.1% 37% 37% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.1% 37% -39.4%
10% -43.1% 30% -45.2%
15% -48.6% 27% -50.5%
20% -53.6% 23% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 85% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -30% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$9 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$444
Realized−$54
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses11 / 19
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)30 / 36
History coverage79d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $421 $393 −$28 (-7%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $34 $32 −$2 (-6%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 43¢ 98¢ $5 $11 +$6 (+125%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 59¢ 62¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ 3¢ $20 $3 −$17 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Jun 22 $1 +$1 +70%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close Jun 21 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? Jun 16 $1 $0 +14%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 16 $1 +$2 +164%
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? May 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week? May 26 $2 −$2 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $46 +$65 +141%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? May 26 $81 −$79 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 26? May 25 $9 −$9 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? May 25 $4 −$4 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 26? May 25 $5 −$5 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? May 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping? May 16 $4 −$4 -96%
Will Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026? May 16 $4 +$1 +31%
Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $21 −$2 -8%
AWS service disrupted by April 30? May 09 $2 +$2 +100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026? May 09 $3 +$2 +56%
X Money released by April 30, 2026? May 09 $3 +$3 +96%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? May 09 $3 +$4 +156%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? Apr 08 $1 $0 +20%
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on April 7? Apr 08 $3 +$1 +38%
ChatGPT Outage by April 17? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026? Apr 06 $22 −$22 -100%
GPT-5.5 released by April 30, 2026? Apr 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $31 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $130 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $20 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $200 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 2h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $20 2h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2h
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Close BUY VP.Prodigy 54¢ $2 2d
Dota 2: REKONIX vs OG (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed BUY OG 58¢ $1 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY 50¢ $5 2d
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 2d
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 2d
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $22 2d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 43¢ $5 7d
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 7d
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? BUY No 37¢ $1 28d
Will Trump say "Oman" this week? BUY No 54¢ $1 28d
Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week? BUY No 87¢ $1 28d
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" or "Dumocrat" or "Dumacrat" this week? BUY No 9¢ $2 28d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $110 28d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? SELL No 2¢ $2 28d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 26? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 29d
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on May 26? BUY No 68¢ $81 29d
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 29d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 26? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 29d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 26? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 29d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 41¢ $46 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $444.00 · official $444.00 (match) · 69 history records