Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:36:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x288f…c06d weather 267 markets active 0h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$33 (-1%) realized −$33 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%114W / 151L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% $0
other 20% −$4
politics 16% −$9
crypto 14% −$1
sports 5% −$10
tech 4% $0
world 2% −$3
economics 2% −$3
culture 1% −$4
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -0.0% -9.6% 19% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 86 -0.0% -9.5% 30% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 212 -2.4% -11.7% 38% 0% -9.9%
all 265 -4.9% -13.9% 43% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 0% -10.1%
10% -22.2% 0% -18.7%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.6%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$55
Realized−$33
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses114 / 151
Open positions2
Markets (closed)265 / 267
History coverage556d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 265 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 43°C or higher on June 27? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? Jun 26 $17 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on June 26? Jun 26 $14 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 26 $40 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 26? Jun 26 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 26? Jun 26 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 26? Jun 26 $15 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $25 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? Jun 26 $54 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 Jun 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? Jun 25 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on June 2 Jun 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 39°C or higher on June 25? Jun 25 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 25? Jun 25 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 25? Jun 25 $20 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $28 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 19? Jun 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 05 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on June 4? Jun 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $73,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 3? Jun 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 60-61°F on Ju Jun 03 $19 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 4? Jun 03 $9 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will Kim Dong-yeon win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $23 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 3? Jun 03 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 3? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Derek Tran advance from the CA-45 primary election? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will Adrian Mapp be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election? Jun 02 $25 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 58-59°F on Ju Jun 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 28°C or below on June 2? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Gina Viola win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 2? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 2? Jun 02 $9 $0 -0%
Will Cole Palmer be included in England's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 1? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 57°F or below on June 1? Jun 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C or below on June 1? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 43°C or higher on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $30 28m
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? SELL No 100¢ $17 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 27? BUY No 100¢ $17 5h
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 9h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $27 10h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $0 11h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? SELL No 100¢ $7 12h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $45 Week of June 22 2026? BUY No 100¢ $27 12h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $24 13h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $19 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $24 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $15 17h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $19 18h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $15 20h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 21h
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $10 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $28 22h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $26 23h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 SELL No 100¢ $2 25h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 SELL No 100¢ $8 25h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 SELL No 100¢ $1 25h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 104-105°F on June 25 SELL No 100¢ $3 25h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $28 26h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C or below on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $14 28h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 8°C on June 26? SELL No 100¢ $9 29h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 17°C or below on June 2 SELL No 100¢ $3 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.93 · official $54.93 (match) · 631 history records