Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:14:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2890…06d6 politics 77 markets active 2h ago coverage 667d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%4W / 73L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 95% −$15
other 2% $0
economics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
all 77 -1.7% -11.1% 5% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

667d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses4 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)77 / 77
History coverage667d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 77 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $58 $0 +0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 13 $58 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 12 $59 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $59 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $59 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 17 $59 $0 +0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 16 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me Mar 13 $59 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 01 $59 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 07 $59 $0 +0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will Genoa win the 2025–26 Serie A league? Nov 25 $58 $0 -0%
Will Jayden Daniels win NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Inter Milan win the Serie A? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will Wolverhampton be relegated? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will David Sacks be a member of the Trump administration? Jan 28 $4 $0 +0%
Will Milady flip BAYC in 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Baltimore Ravens make the 2024-25 NFL Playoffs? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Satoshi Nakamoto's identity be proven in Q4 2024? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
No one announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Rick Scott be the next Senate Majority Leader? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Another Israeli military action against Iran in 2024? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Ravens win Super Bowl 2025? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
U.S. military action against Iran in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Kirk Cousins win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will 'Deadpool 3' gross most in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Devin Booker lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 19 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? Dec 19 $0 $0 -2%
Will Kyler Murray win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Dec 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will 'Kraven the Hunter' gross between $22-25m on 3-day opening weeken Dec 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will Kawhi Leonard lead the NBA in scoring? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Martin Small announced as next BlackRock CEO? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will the Dolphins win the AFC East? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Patriots win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid not launch a token in 2024? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Oklahoma State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $4 $0 +0%
Will Casey DeSantis be appointed as the next Florida senator? Nov 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will the November 2024 temperature increase be greater than 1.39°C? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during December FOMC P Nov 26 $1 $0 -3%
Will Josh Allen be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Nov 17 $0 $0 -3%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? Nov 17 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $58 1h
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $58 11h
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $58 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $58 8d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 14d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 15d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $58 39d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $58 39d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $58 43d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $58 43d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $59 73d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $59 74d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 77d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 77d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $59 85d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $59 85d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $59 91d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $59 91d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $59 96d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $59 96d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 99¢ $59 99d
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 99¢ $59 100d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $59 100d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $59 101d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me SELL No 100¢ $59 104d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the March 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $59 104d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $59 113d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $52 113d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $8 113d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $59 115d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records