Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:26:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2892…71dd sports 912 markets active 0h ago coverage 83d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$11,118 (-31%) realized −$11,195 · open +$77
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate37%300W / 517L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day36.7pace
Fees−$456est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$2,197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 37% −$2,274
sports 34% +$90
other 19% −$205
world 5% +$279
politics 3% −$157
tech 1% −$16
crypto 1% +$28
weather 0% −$11
finance 0% −$17
economics 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 160 -40.4% -46.1% 22% 21% -29.7%
≤30d 315 +1.4% -8.2% 39% 37% +7.2%
≤90d 817 -1.8% -11.1% 37% 33% -16.2%
all 817 -1.8% -11.1% 37% 33% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 33% -16.2%
10% ← realistic here -19.7% 31% -24.2%
15% -27.4% 27% -31.5%
20% -34.5% 24% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$18 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$2,197
Realized−$11,195
Unrealized+$77
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses300 / 517
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$456
Open positions86
Markets (closed)817 / 912
History coverage83d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day36.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 86 History 817 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 51¢ 67¢ $322 $427 +$105 (+32%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $200 $214 +$14 (+7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 35¢ $44 $73 +$29 (+66%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 30¢ $60 $70 +$10 (+17%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $75 $66 −$9 (-12%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $40 $59 +$19 (+47%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $52 $54 +$2 (+4%)
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $62 $48 −$14 (-23%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $34 $40 +$6 (+19%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+28%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Mbappe vs. Kane Kane 50¢ 31¢ $60 $37 −$23 (-38%)
Will The Social Reckoning get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards? Yes 3¢ 20¢ $5 $34 +$29 (+575%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: France (-2.5) France 59¢ 44¢ $40 $29 −$11 (-27%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $36 $29 −$7 (-19%)
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 240m and 260m? Yes 28¢ 29¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+4%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Dembele vs. Olise Dembele 51¢ 40¢ $30 $24 −$7 (-22%)
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing CONMEBOL nation at the World Cup? Yes 40¢ 57¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+44%)
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 35¢ 40¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+14%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening week in 2026? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $16 $22 +$6 (+37%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $21 $22 +$1 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 22 $26 −$17 -68%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 22 $20 $0 -1%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$8 -76%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 1 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 22 $25 −$16 -61%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $7 −$7 -100%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $25 +$46 +183%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $10 −$1 -5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $15 +$8 +52%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $10 −$10 -99%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 145m and 158m Jun 22 $48 +$6 +12%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $15 −$3 -23%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 $0 -3%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$3 -63%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $20 +$27 +132%
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 52m? Jun 21 $63 +$16 +25%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Jun 21 $35 −$23 -66%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $20 +$36 +176%
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $10 −$7 -70%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $25 −$17 -69%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $28 −$19 -67%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 20 $7 −$5 -75%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 −$14 -93%
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $5 −$4 -85%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $41 +$12 +29%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$15 +73%
Will "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m? Jun 20 $38 −$36 -94%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $20 6m
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France 17¢ $5 6m
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $23 1h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 1h
Will Bruno Fernandes record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cu SELL Yes 5¢ $8 1h
Will Argentina be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 1h
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $30 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $25 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 59¢ $30 1h
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap BUY Yes 36¢ $8 2h
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on SELL Yes 25¢ $5 2h
Will "Supergirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 52m and 58m? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 2h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 60¢ $10 2h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 7h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 82¢ $71 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Austria? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Austria? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 16h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 47¢ $10 16h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 16h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $7 16h
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 49¢ $23 16h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 53¢ $20 16h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Austria 61¢ $10 16h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $10 16h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 16h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 16h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 32¢ $10 16h
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,196.91 · official $2,195.57 (match) · 3500 history records