Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x2897…31bc crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$43 (-29%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -55% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day12.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$33
other 33% −$23
world 7% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-59.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -55.1% -59.4% 25% 25% -55.3%
≤30d 12 -55.1% -59.4% 25% 25% -55.3%
≤90d 12 -55.1% -59.4% 25% 25% -55.3%
all 12 -55.1% -59.4% 25% 25% -55.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -59.4% 25% -55.3%
10% -63.2% 25% -59.6%
15% -66.8% 25% -63.5%
20% -70.1% 25% -67.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -51% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -55% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late -73% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$8 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)12 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day12.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+50%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +62%
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$9 +60%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $22 −$8 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $5 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 16h
Gavi Paez: 1+ assists BUY Yes 27¢ $5 19h
Mikel Oyarzabal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 61¢ $5 19h
Ferrán Torres: 1+ goals BUY Yes 56¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $15 24h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $5 25h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 42¢ $3 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $14 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $22 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 28h
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 43h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY Yes 0¢ $1 43h
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 5¢ $10 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.13 · official $27.13 (match) · 27 history records