Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:24:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28a1…0445 crypto 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (395 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$16,364 (-11%) realized −$16,382 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%19W / 28L
Whale WR42%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,183per market
Trades / day395.0pace
Fees−$227est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3,518now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% −$32,418
sports 18% +$7,092
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (395 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-32.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -25.7% -32.8% 40% 40% -25.1%
≤30d 47 -25.7% -32.8% 40% 40% -25.1%
≤90d 47 -25.7% -32.8% 40% 40% -25.1%
all 47 -25.7% -32.8% 40% 40% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover395.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.8% 40% -25.1%
10% -39.2% 40% -32.2%
15% ← realistic here -45.1% 38% -38.8%
20% -50.4% 34% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 42% (≥$4,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -29% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,637 vs −$2,694 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$3,518
Realized−$16,382
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses19 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)42%
Est. fees paid−$227
Open positions1
Markets (closed)47 / 48
History coverage1d
Avg bet$3,183
Trades / day395.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Down 51¢ 52¢ $3,500 $3,518 +$18 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 24 $1,655 +$1,482 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 24 $4,136 −$4,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 24 $2,173 −$2,100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 24 $2,584 −$2,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 24 $2,092 −$2,092 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 24 $2,581 +$2,102 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 24 $3,099 +$2,562 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 24 $2,572 −$2,046 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 24 $1,345 −$1,345 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $3,617 +$3,084 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 24 $3,614 +$2,921 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $2,584 −$2,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 24 $2,068 −$2,068 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $2,050 +$1,277 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $2,588 −$2,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $3,099 −$3,099 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $6,821 +$5,922 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 24 $4,149 −$4,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $1,033 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $1,550 −$1,550 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $2,065 −$2,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $2,586 +$2,378 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 24 $1,551 +$1,359 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 24 $1,033 +$869 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 24 $2,067 +$1,782 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 24 $2,590 −$2,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 24 $5,696 −$5,696 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 24 $3,621 −$3,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 24 $523 +$975 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 24 $5,169 −$5,169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 24 $3,096 +$2,484 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 24 $525 −$500 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $3,595 −$3,500 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 24 $1,547 −$1,547 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $4,654 +$4,295 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $5,051 −$4,925 -98%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $16,310 +$6,572 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 23 $5,159 +$3,999 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 23 $1,015 +$254 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $4,691 −$4,500 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $2,385 −$2,385 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $4,169 −$4,000 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $1,155 −$1,100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 23 $2,076 +$2,259 +109%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $8,074 +$3,520 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $319 −$319 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $3,043 −$3,000 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $516 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $517 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $47 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $470 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $517 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $413 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $104 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $518 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $251 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $266 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $134 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $383 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $517 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $518 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $103 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $207 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $517 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $516 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $517 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $112 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $405 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $506 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $289 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $228 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $228 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $85 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,517.79 · official $3,517.79 (match) · 431 history records