Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:27:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x28a3…869e
world · 32 markets active 1h ago
7.5score
+$2,277 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2,277 · open +$28
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$128
Realized+$2,277
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses18 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage152d
Avg bet$1,087
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 31 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$446
14 days+$1,077
30 days+$1,253
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 32¢ 40¢ $100 $128 +$28 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 12 $1,832 +$446 +24%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $147 −$15 -10%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 02 $74 −$27 -37%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $2,400 +$674 +28%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $114 +$186 +163%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? May 16 $2,224 −$10 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? May 13 $2,546 −$322 -13%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? May 07 $399 +$86 +22%
Iran leadership change by December 31? May 07 $881 −$223 -25%
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? May 07 $60 −$55 -92%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? Apr 24 $2,511 +$230 +9%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $2,418 +$93 +4%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? Apr 19 $1,000 +$71 +7%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 19 $3,158 −$205 -6%
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $135 +$66 +49%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 16 $100 +$101 +101%
Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? Apr 14 $100 +$29 +29%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 12 $100 +$26 +26%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? Apr 12 $81 −$54 -67%
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31? Apr 08 $1,834 +$548 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March? Mar 23 $1,844 −$10 -1%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 11 $250 −$192 -77%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Mar 07 $100 +$20 +20%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 6? Mar 02 $1,907 +$109 +6%
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026? Feb 28 $1,468 +$438 +30%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Feb 27 $714 +$169 +24%
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? Feb 22 $1,216 +$42 +3%
Will Russia capture Lyman by March 31, 2026? Jan 22 $707 −$101 -14%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 15 $897 +$462 +52%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 14 $500 −$30 -6%
US strikes Iran by January 17, 2026? Jan 14 $701 −$274 -39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 87% +$2,085
politics 7% +$230
finance 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 32¢ $100 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $2,060 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $2,278 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $2,278 2d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $800 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,032 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 48¢ $132 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 53¢ $147 9d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $47 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $74 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $3,074 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $2,400 18d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? BUY No 38¢ $114 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 77¢ $2,214 29d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 77¢ $2,224 31d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $2,224 32d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $2,546 32d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 63¢ $485 38d
Iran leadership change by December 31? SELL Yes 30¢ $555 38d
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? SELL No 6¢ $5 38d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 52¢ $399 42d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $226 51d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $400 51d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? SELL No 99¢ $2,526 51d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 40¢ $103 52d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? SELL No 96¢ $103 52d
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10? BUY No 74¢ $60 52d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? SELL No 95¢ $60 52d
Iran leadership change by December 31? BUY Yes 38¢ $53 52d
Will Trump visit Pakistan by April 30? SELL No 95¢ $53 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +24.3% +12.5% 100% 100% +12.5%
≤30d 6 +28.0% +15.8% 50% 50% +7.2%
≤90d 21 +11.5% +0.9% 57% 43% -3.4%
all 31 +7.7% -2.6% 58% 42% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 42% -3.2%
10% -11.9% 35% -12.4%
15% -20.4% 13% -20.9%
20% -28.2% 10% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.68 · official $127.68 (match) · 86 history records