Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:20:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28a3…8620 sports 1495 markets active 1h ago coverage 213d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
Total PnL −$28 (-0%) realized +$117 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate54%790W / 684L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Fees−$71est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$80
14 days+$201
30 days+$56
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$109
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +25.7% +13.7% 67% 67% +13.4%
≤30d 156 +5.2% -4.8% 56% 56% -6.7%
≤90d 520 +2.1% -7.6% 55% 55% -7.5%
all 1474 +1.2% -8.5% 54% 53% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 53% -8.8%
10% -17.2% 53% -17.5%
15% -25.2% 53% -25.5%
20% -32.6% 50% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$9 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

213d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$117
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses790 / 684
Est. fees paid−$71
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1474 / 1495
History coverage213d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1474 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-2%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Golden Knights 48¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 52¢ 32¢ $11 $7 −$4 (-38%)
Red Wings vs. Senators Senators 59¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox Toronto Blue Jays 61¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankees: O/U 8.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Lamar Cardinals vs. New Orleans Privateers Lamar Cardinals 53¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Chiefs vs. Broncos Chiefs 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Islanders Islanders 62¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets New York Mets 63¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Southern Jaguars vs. Texas Southern Tigers Southern Jaguars 65¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 58¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Panthers Hurricanes 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 59¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Oilers vs. Avalanche: O/U 7.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Chicago White Sox vs. Athletics Athletics 59¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
East Carolina vs. Florida Atlantic Florida Atlantic 31¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Ducks vs. Wild Ducks 57¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 53¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Blue Jackets vs. Devils Devils 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Hurricanes vs. Flyers Flyers 39¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Howard Bison vs. Drexel Dragons Drexel Dragons 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Central Michigan Chippewas vs. Miami (OH) RedHawks Central Michigan Chippewas 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $12 +$8 +67%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $12 +$10 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $14 −$14 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $11 +$13 +119%
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders Jun 13 $11 −$10 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $13 −$12 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $12 +$9 +70%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $11 −$10 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $14 +$7 +48%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 13 $12 +$10 +83%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $12 +$9 +76%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $12 +$10 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 12 $8 +$11 +140%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $12 +$10 +83%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $12 +$9 +76%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $12 +$10 +79%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $15 +$8 +52%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $12 +$11 +90%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $13 +$10 +79%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 09 $11 −$11 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $13 −$12 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $12 −$12 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $10 +$14 +134%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 08 $11 +$10 +86%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $11 −$1 -5%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 07 $12 −$12 -99%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 07 $11 +$9 +83%
Edmonton Elks vs. Ottawa Redblacks Jun 07 $10 +$11 +105%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $10 +$12 +114%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $26 +$9 +36%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $12 −$11 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $10 +$7 +67%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 7.5 Jun 06 $10 +$8 +76%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $10 +$11 +105%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $10 +$11 +109%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers vs. Calgary Stampeders Jun 06 $11 −$11 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $14 +$7 +48%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $15 +$10 +65%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 04 $20 −$20 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 04 $14 −$14 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $7 +$9 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $14 +$7 +50%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $15 +$7 +48%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 04 $10 +$13 +124%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 03 $7 +$10 +140%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 48¢ $10 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $11 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 65¢ $14 6h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $12 6h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $12 6h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 48¢ $10 23h
British Columbia Lions vs. Saskatchewan Roughriders BUY British Columbia Lions 51¢ $11 25h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 55¢ $12 25h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers BUY Milwaukee Brewers 61¢ $13 25h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 45¢ $11 30h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Miami Marlins 49¢ $10 30h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 49¢ $11 30h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $12 30h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $14 46h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 40¢ $10 46h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $12 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY San Diego Padres 46¢ $10 2d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Cleveland Guardians 54¢ $12 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY New York Mets 54¢ $12 2d
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Hamilton Tiger-Cats 41¢ $8 3d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $13 3d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $12 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $13 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 63¢ $13 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 65¢ $15 4d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 52¢ $12 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 55¢ $12 4d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Golden Knights 50¢ $11 5d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 61¢ $13 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $12 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.24 · official $39.24 (match) · 2336 history records