Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T05:10:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28a4…1573 other 125 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,387 (-1%) realized −$1,387 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate19%24W / 100L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$885per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$16
30 days−$1,616
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$1,403
politics 30% −$125
sports 13% +$114
culture 4% −$4
economics 2% −$2
world 1% −$3
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -6.0% -14.9% 12% 0% -17.3%
≤90d 56 -1.1% -10.5% 9% 2% -11.0%
all 124 -1.6% -11.0% 19% 11% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 11% -10.7%
10% -19.5% 11% -19.2%
15% -27.3% 10% -27.0%
20% -34.4% 7% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,236) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$23 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.39 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$657
Realized−$1,387
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses24 / 100
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)124 / 125
History coverage152d
Avg bet$885
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 124 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $658 $657 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $216 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $286 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $407 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $1,144 −$2 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $930 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,581 −$4 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $2,249 −$3 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,083 −$2 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $1,163 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,643 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $620 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,663 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,047 −$2 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,210 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 24 $1,594 −$1,594 -100%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $2,719 −$3 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,035 −$1 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,242 −$1 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,420 −$1 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,342 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $2,612 −$3 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $2,808 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,911 −$3 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,334 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,684 −$3 -0%
Genius FDV above $20M one day after launch? Apr 15 $57 $0 +1%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $3,334 −$3 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,236 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $2,876 −$3 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $1,424 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 13 $1,957 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $1,525 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $1,530 −$2 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 10 $1,453 −$1 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $2,582 −$3 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $1,064 −$1 -0%
Magic vs. Mavericks Apr 06 $888 +$369 +42%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Apr 01 $52 $0 +0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 28 $1,218 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $911 −$1 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $1,961 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $2,375 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 25 $1,601 −$2 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $948 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 25 $1,052 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $967 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $216 3m
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $216 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $286 1h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $286 2h
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $406 2d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $407 2d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $658 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,142 5d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,144 5d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $929 6d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $930 6d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,092 7d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,094 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,193 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,194 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,081 8d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,083 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,162 8d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,163 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,033 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,035 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $619 14d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $620 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $915 14d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $916 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,046 14d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,047 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,209 15d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,210 15d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $18 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $657.30 · official $657.30 (match) · 363 history records