Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:17:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
28 0x28a5…ec71 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+3%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown24%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% +$13
other 28% +$14
sports 12% +$2
politics 6% +$1
finance 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 13 +1.5% -8.2% 46% 0% -7.5%
≤90d 14 +0.1% -9.5% 43% 0% -8.7%
all 32 +8.3% -2.0% 47% 6% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 6% -6.8%
10% -11.4% 3% -15.7%
15% -20.0% 3% -23.8%
20% -27.8% 3% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.83 per $1 lost it wins $4.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage252d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown24%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 72¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $113 +$11 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $46 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $1 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 25 $47 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $19 +$2 +9%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $89 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $6 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 20 $40 $0 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 20 $43 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 20 $44 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Apr 02 $39 −$7 -19%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Dec 11 $18 +$1 +3%
Bowling vs. UMass Dec 11 $9 +$2 +18%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 11 $9 +$21 +235%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 22 $34 $0 +0%
Panthers vs. 49ers Nov 22 $35 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $35 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $14 +$1 +10%
Trump out as President in 2025? Oct 22 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 17 to October 24, 2025 Oct 22 $16 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 22 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 18 $40 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in 2025? Oct 17 $24 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 17 $24 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 71¢ $23 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 72¢ $51 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $7 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 6h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $35 9h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 14h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 17h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 17h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 52¢ $31 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $19 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 43¢ $0 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 54¢ $46 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 54¢ $42 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $1 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $1 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $4 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $12 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $26 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 42¢ $1 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $32 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $18 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $27 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $50 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 97¢ $50 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.89 · official $28.66 (match) · 140 history records