Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T18:59:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28a5…29c8 crypto 1714 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 85d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$200 (+1%) realized +$200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate95%1640W / 79L
Drawdown44%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day21.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$84
7 days+$44
14 days+$201
30 days+$230
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$202
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 467 +1.5% -8.1% 96% 13% -9.2%
≤30d 1313 +2.7% -7.1% 97% 14% -8.3%
≤90d 1719 +1.1% -8.5% 95% 12% -8.8%
all 1719 +1.1% -8.5% 95% 12% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 12% -8.8%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 5% -17.5%
15% -25.3% 3% -25.5%
20% -32.6% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$10 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses1640 / 79
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1719 / 1714
History coverage85d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day21.3
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1719 Trades
no open positions (78 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 26, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 25, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 20 $9 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $45 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $35 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 20 $50 +$1 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 20 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $42 −$41 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $49 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 20 $50 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 20 $29 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 20 $14 +$9 +63%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 20 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$2 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 20 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 20 $17 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 20 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $20 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $9 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $35 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $42 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 10h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $50 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $29 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $20 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records