Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T07:36:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
28 0x28a7…119b other 120 markets active 2h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,227 (-1%) realized −$1,228 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate22%26W / 92L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,210per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$14
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$491
politics 32% −$52
sports 10% −$514
culture 4% −$174
world 1% −$4
crypto 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 60 -1.8% -11.1% 7% 0% -10.3%
all 118 +1.6% -8.1% 22% 14% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 14% -10.3%
10% -16.9% 14% -18.9%
15% -24.9% 11% -26.8%
20% -32.3% 8% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,487) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$27 · ×1.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$824
Realized−$1,228
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses26 / 92
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions2
Markets (closed)118 / 120
History coverage133d
Avg bet$1,210
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 118 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $508 $509 +$1 (+0%)
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? No 99¢ 99¢ $315 $315 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $462 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 25 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,360 −$2 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $483 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,177 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $4,601 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $2,548 −$4 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $864 −$1 -0%
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $815 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $110 in May? Jun 04 $209 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 04 $403 $0 +0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 28 $332 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $318 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $1,191 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $335 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $6,965 −$7 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $713 −$1 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $2,488 −$3 -0%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 22 $718 −$718 -100%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 09 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $2,735 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 08 $1,675 −$1 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 07 $1,636 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $7,182 −$7 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $2,577 −$3 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 02 $1,548 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,540 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $2,430 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 30 $1,487 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $1,487 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $1,059 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $6,323 −$6 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,318 −$1 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 16 $1,671 −$2 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $2,717 −$3 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $1,392 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $4,619 −$5 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $1,004 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 04 $852 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $964 −$1 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $2,507 −$3 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 03 $1,890 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $315 1h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $462 26h
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $462 29h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $455 44h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $455 46h
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $452 6d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $452 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $482 7d
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $483 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $486 8d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $486 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $453 8d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $453 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $509 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $813 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $815 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $799 13d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $800 13d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $857 14d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $858 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $862 14d
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $864 14d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $825 19d
Will Oceania (OCF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $826 20d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $718 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $719 21d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $814 21d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $815 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $824.33 · official $824.33 (match) · 395 history records