Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28a9…cfb7 crypto 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,775 (-23%) realized −$6,775 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate38%64W / 104L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days−$198
14 days−$198
30 days−$198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$7,388
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-25.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -56.0% -60.2% 0% 0% -63.7%
≤30d 2 -56.0% -60.2% 0% 0% -63.7%
≤90d 28 -14.8% -22.9% 50% 50% -30.0%
all 168 -17.8% -25.6% 38% 38% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.6% 38% -32.4%
10% -32.7% 36% -38.9%
15% -39.2% 33% -44.8%
20% -45.2% 30% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$144 vs −$160 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,775
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses64 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)168 / 168
History coverage118d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 168 Trades
no open positions (91 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $232 −$179 -77%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 23 $150 −$18 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7PM ET May 01 $140 −$135 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 01 $742 −$711 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 01 $208 +$133 +64%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 01 $234 +$168 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Apr 21 $308 −$296 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 20 $277 −$277 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 8AM ET Apr 20 $300 −$287 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Apr 20 $200 +$145 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Apr 09 $86 +$61 +71%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Apr 09 $523 +$164 +31%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 09 $200 +$31 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 09 $46 +$8 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 11AM ET Apr 09 $100 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 11AM ET Apr 09 $100 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down on April 9? Apr 09 $405 −$164 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 10AM ET Apr 09 $211 +$226 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Apr 09 $227 +$323 +142%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Apr 09 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 09 $112 +$110 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3PM ET Apr 08 $499 −$479 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 02 $120 −$115 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Apr 02 $100 −$94 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 31? Mar 31 $697 −$697 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Mar 31 $284 −$274 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11PM ET Mar 31 $612 +$365 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10PM ET Mar 31 $794 +$310 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 4PM ET Mar 23 $446 −$444 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Mar 17 $490 −$483 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Mar 17 $595 −$589 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Mar 17 $100 +$136 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 17 $153 +$46 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Mar 17 $177 −$177 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Mar 17 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Mar 17 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 17 $75 +$93 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Mar 17 $100 +$86 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 16 $100 +$109 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 12 $29 −$29 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 12 $369 −$368 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Mar 12 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Mar 10 $105 −$103 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Mar 10 $227 −$223 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 11AM ET Mar 10 $670 −$662 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Mar 08 $279 −$275 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 8, 1:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 08 $174 +$105 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 8? Mar 08 $650 −$267 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Mar 07 $29 +$36 +122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Mar 07 $109 +$88 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $184 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $32 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $37 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $88 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $47 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $3 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $10 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $104 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 52d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $42 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $157 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $22 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $522 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $341 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $402 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $104 53d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 21, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $308 62d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $277 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 8AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $300 64d
Ethereum Up or Down - April 20, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 66¢ $5 64d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 744 history records