Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28b0…7732 crypto 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$64 (+2%) realized +$64 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate97%131W / 4L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$75now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% −$8
crypto 31% +$4
politics 11% +$69
tech 9% +$1
weather 3% $0
culture 3% $0
economics 2% $0
world 1% $0
sports 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 25 +0.3% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 106 -0.6% -10.1% 98% 0% -9.7%
all 135 +0.2% -9.3% 97% 1% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -8.0%
10% -18.0% 1% -16.8%
15% -25.9% 1% -24.9%
20% -33.2% 1% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×5.26 per $1 lost it wins $5.26
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$75
Realized+$64
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses131 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)135 / 138
History coverage567d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? No 99¢ 99¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation Jun 20 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $41 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? Jun 01 $43 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $15 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 31 $14 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? May 28 $22 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 28 $54 $0 +0%
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $22 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 27 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? May 27 $31 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? May 25 $21 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? May 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will "LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI" win Palme d'Or May 24 $21 $0 +1%
Will "MOULIN by László NEMES" win Palme d'Or at the 2026 Cannes Film F May 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 22? May 23 $23 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $46 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 22 $25 $0 +0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 20? May 20 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 20 $34 $0 +0%
Will Firecracker die in "The Boys: Season 5"? May 20 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 19? May 19 $22 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 19? May 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 19 $38 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 17? May 18 $11 $0 +0%
Will Joaquin Niemann win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 11-17? May 18 $22 $0 +0%
Will Ben Griffin win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 18 $28 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will Moldova be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $26 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $38 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 16? May 16 $15 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 16 $19 $0 +0%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $25 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $11 24h
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $29 3d
Will Prosperous Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian Nation BUY No 100¢ $15 18d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $41 20d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec BUY No 100¢ $23 21d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 21d
Will the People Power Party (PPP) win the 2026 South Korean local elec BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $13 23d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by May 31, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 24d
Will ByteDance have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $43 25d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 25d
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $12 26d
Will Delia Velculescu be the next Prime Minister of Romania? BUY No 99¢ $38 26d
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia BUY No 99¢ $14 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $22 27d
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $27 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 28d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $22 29d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 26? BUY Yes 100¢ $31 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 99¢ $21 29d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $12 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $60 30d
Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be l BUY No 99¢ $10 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 May 18-24? BUY No 100¢ $20 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74.58 · official $74.58 (match) · 279 history records