Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T22:47:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
28 0x28b1…dc74 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$840 (+35%) realized +$865 · open −$25
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%16W / 11L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$28est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$712
14 days+$815
30 days+$815
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$606
other 19% +$198
crypto 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+7.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +19.6% +8.2% 58% 58% +34.1%
≤30d 27 +18.5% +7.2% 59% 59% +22.3%
≤90d 27 +18.5% +7.2% 59% 59% +22.3%
all 27 +18.5% +7.2% 59% 59% +22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.2% 59% +22.3%
10% -3.1% 59% +10.6%
15% -12.4% 56% -0.1%
20% -21.0% 56% -9.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$57 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.3 per $1 lost it wins $2.3
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized+$865
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses16 / 11
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage10d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 55¢ 28¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $97 +$119 +124%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $51 +$71 +140%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $61 +$43 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $253 +$178 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $81 −$80 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $172 +$111 +65%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $51 +$77 +152%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $61 +$67 +109%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $101 +$79 +78%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $69 +$105 +152%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$69 +68%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $102 +$148 +145%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $26 +$20 +76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $216 +$66 +30%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $97 +$119 +123%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $101 −$69 -68%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$60 +59%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $101 +$107 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $97 21h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 45¢ $51 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $51 27h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 41¢ $51 42h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $51 46h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $61 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $253 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $81 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $50 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $172 3d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 AND Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco BUY $5 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $61 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 4d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $61 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $101 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $174 5d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $69 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $170 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $250 6d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $102 6d
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $102 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $46 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 56¢ $26 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $282 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 76¢ $216 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.00 · official $25.00 (match) · 51 history records