Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T15:06:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x28b2…eb4f
tech · 181 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$28,094 +11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$24,087 · open +$2,584
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$57,410
Realized+$24,087
Unrealized+$2,584
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses84 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Open positions58
Markets (closed)128 / 181
History coverage24d
Avg bet$1,402
Trades / day138.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit79%
Chart Positions 58 History 128 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$186
7 days+$4,904
14 days+$14,295
30 days+$24,087
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 96¢ $12,268 $12,180 −$88 (-1%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $5,499 $6,591 +$1,091 (+20%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 92¢ 96¢ $3,960 $4,138 +$178 (+4%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $3,240 $3,378 +$138 (+4%)
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 98¢ 99¢ $2,997 $3,033 +$36 (+1%)
Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 92¢ 99¢ $2,620 $2,829 +$210 (+8%)
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 93¢ $2,360 $2,341 −$20 (-1%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 79¢ 92¢ $1,991 $2,303 +$312 (+16%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 94¢ 97¢ $1,684 $1,745 +$61 (+4%)
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,621 $1,640 +$19 (+1%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $1,529 $1,593 +$64 (+4%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510? No 88¢ 96¢ $1,419 $1,547 +$129 (+9%)
Will Anthropic have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Control On)? Yes 71¢ 86¢ $1,241 $1,502 +$261 (+21%)
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 89¢ 91¢ $1,357 $1,383 +$26 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 72¢ 89¢ $1,039 $1,288 +$249 (+24%)
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $793 $897 +$105 (+13%)
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before September 30, 2026? Yes 96¢ 97¢ $883 $894 +$11 (+1%)
Will Anthropic have the third best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 73¢ 89¢ $612 $744 +$132 (+22%)
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Yes 75¢ 91¢ $603 $732 +$128 (+21%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 57¢ 96¢ $357 $596 +$240 (+67%)
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $582 $596 +$13 (+2%)
Will Z.ai have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $488 $497 +$9 (+2%)
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 82¢ $416 $489 +$73 (+18%)
Will Google have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 53¢ 50¢ $437 $414 −$23 (-5%)
Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 98¢ $348 $378 +$31 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 12 $1,020 +$100 +10%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 12 $1,198 +$40 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $3,283 +$122 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? Jun 12 $100 +$16 +16%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 12 $89 +$15 +17%
Will any other model be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $17 −$9 -53%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $26 +$61 +232%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1510+? Jun 11 $495 +$5 +1%
Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? Jun 11 $1,347 +$19 +1%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $500 −$186 -37%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $414 −$94 -23%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 11 $475 +$10 +2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $94 +$6 +7%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $2,175 +$82 +4%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $13 −$1 -9%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $706 +$72 +10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026? Jun 09 $862 +$135 +16%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,170 +$3,431 +158%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 09 $48 +$12 +25%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 19, 2026? Jun 09 $171 +$26 +15%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1,978 +$708 +36%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $8,451 +$1,851 +22%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $36 −$36 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6 be the best AI model on June 13, 2026? Jun 09 $58 +$5 +8%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $1,250 +$65 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 09 $3,432 +$152 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $8,191 −$181 -2%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $438 −$82 -19%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,221 −$816 -67%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $719 −$205 -29%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 08 $161 −$114 -71%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 08 $7,450 −$215 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $377 +$7 +2%
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard deb Jun 08 $78 +$2 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $2,860 +$110 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $3,837 +$93 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 07 $1,004 −$401 -40%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard d Jun 07 $28 +$34 +122%
Will Google have the #3 AI model at the end of June 2026 (Style Contro Jun 06 $503 +$21 +4%
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $2,580 +$29 +1%
Will gemini-3.1-pro-preview have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $185 +$4 +2%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $154 +$2 +1%
Will claude-opus-4-7-thinking have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $177 +$4 +2%
Will gemini-3.5-flash have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $275 +$6 +2%
Will any other model have the best AI model on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $10 −$9 -85%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 06 $242 +$21 +8%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $434 +$2 +0%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $16 −$15 -92%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 04 $59 −$51 -86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 42% +$8,445
politics 25% −$7
tech 19% +$8,585
other 13% +$8,276
crypto 1% +$1,410
finance 0% −$39
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 9m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $13 9m
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 71¢ $2 9m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $220 44m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $210 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $165 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $170 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $440 1h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 99¢ $480 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $362 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 92¢ $358 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 88¢ $177 2h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $174 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $460 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $173 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 84¢ $168 3h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $30 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $113 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL No 87¢ $53 4h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $9 4h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 4h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $20 4h
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? SELL Yes 58¢ $116 4h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $86 4h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 96¢ $5 4h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes 96¢ $58 4h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 82¢ $152 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 82¢ $13 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 83¢ $166 5h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY No 83¢ $166 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)+17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 +2.2% -7.6% 69% 20% -2.3%
≤30d 128 +30.3% +17.9% 66% 26% +0.5%
≤90d 128 +30.3% +17.9% 66% 26% +0.5%
all 128 +30.3% +17.9% 66% 26% +0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover138.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +17.9% 26% +0.5%
10% +6.6% 16% -9.2%
15% ← realistic here -3.7% 12% -17.9%
20% -13.1% 9% -26.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57,410.13 · official $57,410.09 (match) · 3500 history records