Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:32:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
28 0x28b3…8af5 other 107 markets active 1h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate13%14W / 90L
Drawdown65%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit49%portable
Net worth$105now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$1
politics 20% −$2
economics 4% −$1
sports 4% +$16
world 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 104 +3.4% -6.5% 13% 11% -9.4%
all 104 +3.4% -6.5% 13% 11% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 11% -9.4%
10% -15.4% 9% -18.1%
15% -23.6% 8% -26.0%
20% -31.1% 8% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×8.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$105
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses14 / 90
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)104 / 107
History coverage85d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit49%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $71 $71 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 99¢ $28 $28 −$0 (-0%)
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 46¢ 48¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $133 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $21 $0 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $17 $0 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $122 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $13 $0 -0%
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in May? Jun 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $15 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $16 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $129 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $22 $0 -0%
Will Rachel Reeves be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 18 $111 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 17 $325 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $165 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $201 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 14 $205 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 12 $112 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $223 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $111 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $277 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $105 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $109 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 05 $112 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $111 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 03 $107 $0 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $205 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $104 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $327 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 29 $114 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 28 $186 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $108 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $107 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $233 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $113 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $187 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 15 $220 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 14 $111 $0 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $126 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $224 $0 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 13 $115 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 1h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $20 3h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 46¢ $6 6h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $20 8h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $71 11h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 24h
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 26h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $13 47h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $13 2d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $17 3d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 100¢ $14 7d
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 100¢ $14 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $20 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $20 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $21 9d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $21 9d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $13 12d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 12d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL No 100¢ $17 14d
Will BIG win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $21 14d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $16 17d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 17d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $20 18d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $22 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.81 · official $104.81 (match) · 288 history records