Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:00:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

28
0x28b3…7af3
weather · 1588 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$564 +3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$565 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,246
Realized+$565
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses385 / 813
Open positions101
Markets (closed)1198 / 1588
History coverage32d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day96.8
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 101 History 1198 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$271
7 days−$271
14 days+$131
30 days+$626
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 31°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $300 $300 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $221 $221 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $181 $181 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 25°C or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 73°F or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 100°F or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 38°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or below on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C or higher on June 14? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Yes 58¢ 68¢ $12 $14 +$2 (+18%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on June 4? Yes 36¢ 100¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+178%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 5? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$5 (+317%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 4? Yes 20¢ 100¢ $1 $6 +$5 (+400%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 4? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+300%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 48°C on June 4? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on June 5? No 100¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 3? Yes 25¢ 100¢ $2 $6 +$4 (+300%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 74-75°F on February Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on May 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 52-53°F on January 1 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 48-49°F on Ma Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C or higher on March 6? Jun 12 $0 +$14 +16226%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on May 2? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 29? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on May 6? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on February 1 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 74°F or higher on April 19? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on February 25? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on February 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 50-51°F on February Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C on February 28? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 20? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on May 6? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 20°C on February 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on March 20? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C or higher on December 1 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on April 4? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on April 28? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 19? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on March 1? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Ja Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 19? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 16? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 4°C on January 7? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 2? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on April 28? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 72-73°F on February Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on February 4? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on March 27? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 8? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 1°C on March 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 40-41°F on January Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on Ap Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 28? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 23? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be -4°C on January 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 15? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on May 1? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 60°F or higher on December Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on February 21? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on May 7? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 8°C on February 15? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$938
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 13m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 28m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 32m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 35m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 42m
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 43m
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on June 14? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C or higher on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 14? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on June 14? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 317 -49.5% -54.3% 11% 6% -23.2%
≤30d 1103 +24.1% +12.3% 35% 19% -7.6%
≤90d 1198 +14.8% +3.9% 32% 17% -8.0%
all 1198 +14.8% +3.9% 32% 17% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover96.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +3.9% 17% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -6.0% 17% -16.8%
15% -15.1% 16% -24.8%
20% -23.4% 16% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,245.52 · official $2,245.54 (match) · 3500 history records