Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:52:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28b5…5ec4 world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 451d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% −$1
other 22% $0
tech 2% $0
politics 2% $0
sports 2% $0
finance 2% −$4
weather 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +2.2% -7.6% 29% 14% -9.2%
≤30d 18 -1.2% -10.6% 39% 6% -10.9%
≤90d 21 -0.3% -9.8% 48% 10% -10.5%
all 31 -0.1% -9.6% 48% 6% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 6% -10.2%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

451d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage451d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 96¢ 95¢ $39 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 20 $36 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $11 $0 -4%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $7 +$1 +20%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $8 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 27 $35 −$3 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $3 $0 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $12 −$4 -38%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $41 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $41 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $12 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 24 $3 $0 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $41 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 23 $40 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $5 +$1 +14%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 21 $41 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Jun 27 $13 $0 +2%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will AppLovin buy TikTok? Apr 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Nottingham Forest finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2025 World Series? Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 67-68°F on April 5? Apr 07 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the Bundesliga? Apr 01 $13 $0 -1%
US military action against Iran before April? Mar 31 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 75¢ $36 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $36 16h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $10 27h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $35 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $35 32h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 12¢ $9 42h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $0 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $3 43h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 10¢ $4 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $15 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $36 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $36 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $29 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 39¢ $4 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $3 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $32 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 40¢ $24 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 39¢ $9 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 39¢ $14 25d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 4¢ $3 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.81 · official $38.81 (match) · 90 history records