Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:10:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

28 0x28b8…62bc other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$17 (+5%) realized +$19 · open −$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +41% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip

Net edge+27%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$47per market

Trades / day0.9pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit43%portable

Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 15d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)+27.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+40.7%	+27.3%	40%	40%	+23.8%
≤30d	5	+40.7%	+27.3%	40%	40%	+23.8%
≤90d	5	+40.7%	+27.3%	40%	40%	+23.8%
all	5	+40.7%	+27.3%	40%	40%	+23.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.9 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+27.3%	40%	+23.8%
10%	+15.1%	40%	+12.0%
15%	+4.0%	40%	+1.2%
20%	-6.2%	40%	-8.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +37% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +41% · $-wt +37% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$60 vs −$20 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage

Net worth$68

Realized+$19

Unrealized−$2

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage15d

Avg bet$47

Trades / day0.9

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$50	$45	−$5 (-9%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)	Team Falcons	39¢	44¢	$20	$23	+$3 (+14%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$24	+$48	+197%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	Jun 20	$53	+$71	+134%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Jun 20	$58	−$57	-97%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 20	$17	−$3	-19%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 18	$7	−$1	-8%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	BUY Yes	9¢	$39	1h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5)	BUY Team Falcons	39¢	$20	1h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	BUY Yes	7¢	$12	17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	100¢	$73	17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	33¢	$24	18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	SELL Team Falcons	100¢	$124	18h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo	BUY Team Falcons	42¢	$53	23h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	SELL Yes	6¢	$53	23h
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	BUY Yes	12¢	$58	26h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	14¢	$14	31h
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	BUY Yes	10¢	$100	2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$7	2d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	4¢	$7	15d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	BUY Yes	16¢	$17	15d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.05 · official $60.87 · 27 history records