Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:55:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28b9…531f crypto 1296 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big⚠ Covers last 23d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$6,087 (+7%) realized +$6,087 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate71%1071W / 435L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day100.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$670
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-18.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 513 -29.9% -36.6% 51% 9% -94.1%
≤30d 1506 -9.5% -18.1% 71% 26% -38.4%
≤90d 1506 -9.5% -18.1% 71% 26% -38.4%
all 1506 -9.5% -18.1% 71% 26% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.1% 26% -38.4%
10% ← realistic here -25.9% 22% -44.3%
15% -33.1% 14% -49.7%
20% -39.6% 7% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
63% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$114 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$6,087
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses1071 / 435
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1506 / 1296
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day100.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1506 Trades
no open positions (389 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $1,605 −$1,605 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $399 −$399 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $322 −$322 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1,632 −$1,632 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $396 −$396 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $1,599 −$1,599 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $349 −$349 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $173 −$173 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $345 −$345 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $778 −$778 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $196 −$196 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $451 −$451 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $199 −$199 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $198 −$198 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $35 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records