Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:54:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
28 0x28b9…d983 crypto 499 markets active 1h ago coverage 73d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,693 (+11%) realized +$2,691 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%149W / 341L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day17.3pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,137
7 days+$997
14 days+$1,805
30 days+$1,805
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$356
sports 18% +$1,195
crypto 5% −$138
world 2% +$314
weather 0% −$26
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -35.1% -41.3% 37% 29% -3.5%
≤30d 69 -13.2% -21.5% 36% 29% -1.8%
≤90d 490 -8.0% -16.8% 30% 28% -2.5%
all 490 -8.0% -16.8% 30% 28% -2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.8% 28% -2.5%
10% -24.8% 26% -11.9%
15% -32.0% 24% -20.4%
20% -38.7% 21% -28.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -16% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$13 · ×3.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.39 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

73d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized+$2,691
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses149 / 341
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions9
Markets (closed)490 / 499
History coverage73d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day17.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 490 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $8 $10 +$2 (+21%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $8 $7 −$2 (-18%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$2 (-29%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+24%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+21%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $2,284 −$34 -2%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $329 +$43 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $603 −$28 -5%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $728 +$45 +6%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $258 +$75 +29%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5 +$4 +79%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $78 −$76 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $329 +$3 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,237 +$819 +37%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $439 +$49 +11%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2,905 +$245 +8%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $4 −$3 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $47 +$66 +140%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -73%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1,190 +$1,860 +156%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $559 −$473 -85%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,217 +$383 +32%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $586 −$487 -83%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $383 −$351 -92%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $13 −$12 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,917 +$248 +13%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $143 −$140 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $208 −$204 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $9 −$9 -97%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $146 −$46 -32%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $39 −$38 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $87 −$85 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $577 −$489 -85%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $366 −$268 -73%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $149 −$145 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $132 +$316 +239%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $757 +$728 +96%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $997 +$83 +8%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,360 +$287 +21%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $121 +$33 +27%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $29 −$28 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $587 −$575 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$9 +89%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $414 +$314 +76%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $35 +$16 +47%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $20 −$2 -9%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$16 +1494%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $162 −$162 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $310 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 20¢ $333 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 20¢ $18 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 20¢ $50 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 20¢ $1 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 20¢ $19 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 20¢ $8 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $291 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $858 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 82¢ $565 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY No 85¢ $491 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 13¢ $3 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 31¢ $16 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $111 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL No 36¢ $150 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 32¢ $15 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 32¢ $18 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 32¢ $26 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 32¢ $80 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 11¢ $248 18h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 56¢ $177 19h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $258 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $1 19h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $236 19h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $78 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 22h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 78¢ $8 22h
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY No 99¢ $329 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.81 · official $42.81 (match) · 1345 history records